The Men's Team
Bubble Bubble Toil and Trouble
We must get more consistent
Or our postseason odds be rubble
Also, is it a Hokie men's basketball season without a missed game by a critical guard?
Anyway...
Scoring
Sean Pedulla's average of 24 over these last four games could very well have put up the best stat lines by a Hokie men's player since I started writing these volumes, including back to back 30-burgers. Joining Pedulla in double figures was Nickel with 12.5 and Cattoor with 11.
Lynn Kidd just missed out with 9.5 ppg, Robbie Beran added 6.5, while Collins (4.5) and Long (4.25) added a bucket per half. Rechsteiner added the remaining 1.5 ppg.
As a team, the Hokies put up 73.75 ppg but gave up 77.5 over the stretch.
Rebounding
The Hokies were disturbingly consistent at rebounding this frame, as 7 Hokies averaged between 3.25 and 4.75 rebounds per game, led by Kidd and Long's 4.75, followed by Pedulla and Beran's 4.5, Collins' 3.75, Cattoor's 3.67, and Poteat's 3.25.
Tyler Nickel pulled down another 2 per game, while Rechsteiner finished with 1.25.
Assists/Turnovers/Steals
Sloppy. Undisciplined. Lazy.
That is how I would describe the Hokies' attempts at passing the ball over this four game stretch. Don't believe me? Our ATO was 50:61. We barely grabbed enough steals to move the AATO into the positive at 50:46. Pedulla led the way with 15 assists, but coupled that by a team leading 18 turnovers, but clawed back with 5 steals. Nickel, Kidd, and Collins looked the best with the ball in their hands, getting AATOs of 7:2, 9:4, and 9:4 respectively.
The announcers mentioned the propensity for our guards to try the hookshot pass.
Our men's guards are not Georgia Amoore.
Experience/Depth
Eleven Hokies managed to take the floor, but only eight played significant minutes. The silver lining in this window is that the younger guys are also getting valuable minutes. Pedulla was the only player in the 30+ club, clocking in at 31.5 minutes per game. The logjam in the 20+ club was led by Nickel's 28.75, followed by Cattoor's 27.67, Collins' 27.5, Kidd's 25.5, and Beran's 21.25.
Rounding out the significant minute earners, Long earned 18.25 minutes per, while Poteat averaged 12.5.
Younger players were led by Rechsteiner's 9, followed by Young's 5.33 (3 games), and Wessler's 4 (1 game).
Looking at trends, Beran saw the biggest jump in minutes, by over 6 per game, from the last frame, while the biggest loser was Rechsteiner who dropped by 12.5 minutes per game. It's telling that the two young freshmen are not quite ready for primetime, as neither of them eclipsed 7 minutes despite 30 mpg were available with Cattoor's absence in the final game of this edition.
Next Window
The Hokies begin this edition traveling to Charlottesville. LOLuva is 11-5, and are tied with the Hokies in ACC play. As per usual, the Hoos are not a prolific scoring team, coming in at 2nd to last in scoring in the ACC, while also having the significantly best scoring defense in the conference. Now for some weird info...they're worse than us at rebounding. They're the only thing keeping us from being dead last. This will absolutely be the case of a resistable force meeting an immovable object as the Hokies allow the fewest opponent rebounds. Our bigs might absolutely annihilate in the low post. UVA is tops in the conference in not allowing turnovers and in ATO, so the Hokies will need to be patient, defensively. What exists of UVA's offense is Beekman's World, as the SR G leads the team in scoring and assists, and they have one volume shooting threat in Isaac McKneely. Neither team has a distinct advantage in height.
Heading down to Raleigh, the Hokies next take on the Pack. State has a higher scoring offense, while the scoring defense is slightly worse than the Hokies. They are one of the worst teams in the conference for allowing rebounds, giving up 6 more boards than the Hokies. They tend to play a lot of heroball, as they only accrue just 13.6 assists per game. Like the Hokies, NC State takes a lot of 3s, with 3 players hitting at least 30% and taking at least 4 shots per game, though top scoring SR G DJ Horne is the primary shooter from beyond the arc. The Hokies will see another four guard lineup here, although a shallower bench than we've seen recently. Their 3 bigs combine for 56 minutes per game, slightly less than the Hokies.
Coming back to Blacksburg, the Hokies welcome Boston College, the top scoring team the Hokies will face during this window. Don't worry, though, they're also the worst scoring defense the Hokies will face during this window. The Eagles have the second worst Opponent FG% in the conference, and are the worst at stopping the 3. Rebounding comparisons are roughly equivalent, as is ATO margin. BC has one volume range shooter, in Claudell Harris Jr, who is hitting almost 45% of his shots from beyond the arc, but top scorer is the aptly named 7-0 SR C Quinten Post at almost 17 ppg. Don't sleep on him, if he's out beyond the arc, because he's still hitting a triple per game. This is going to be a fight on the low block.
TECHMO BOWL is up next. GT has been struggling on the year. The Jackets are in the bottom third of the conference in scoring margin, scoring defense, FG%, 3ptFG%, FT%, Turnovers, and ATO margin. Their few areas of success are in defending the 3 and rebounding, which reasonably go hand-in-hand. JR guard Miles Kelly leads the team in scoring but he is an absolute black hole as the main shooter from beyond the arc, hitting just 28% of his shots from range, while taking 30% of the teams shots. Keep in mind, he takes 20% more shots than Cattoor, but Cattoor has hit 23% more 3s than Kelly .
Prediction
This game will all come down to if Cattoor can play. If he does, Tech has a much better chance of getting that first road win, if he doesn't, I don't see enough skill from the guard position to win the game.
NC State is going to go down to the wire, but I don't see the Hokies pulling it out. NC State wins late in the game.
I do not feel worried about a BC team and a GT team, that as of right now, I don't think have a postseason in the offing for 2024.
2-2, moving the Hokies to 12-7 and 4-5 in conference.
The Women's Team.
For the first time in history, the Hokies are 4-0 to start ACC play. In fact, you'd have to go back to Bonnie Henrickson's 2001-02 Big East squad to find a Hokies Women's basketball team to start conference play with 4 wins.
In that season, two newborn infants named Elizabeth Kitley and Cayla King didn't know it yet, but they would spearhead the next Hokie squad to complete the task.
Scoring
Speaking of, the aforementioned Kitley led the Hokies, again, in scoring over this past four game window, with 23.75 ppg. She wasn't the only scorer in double-figures as Georgia Amoore (29.25) and Matilda Ekh (11.25) made opponents pay for digging down to stop Kitley.
King added 5.75 ppg, while Rose Micheaux and Carys Baker added 4.5 apiece. When your top 6 scorers are averaging 69 ppg, things are nice. Especially when the rest of the bench Summiel/Wenzel (3.75), and Strack (1.5)
78 ppg will win you a bunch of games, even more so when your defense is giving up 57.
Rebounding
After pulling down 11 against Miami (which was also her average over this window), earning her 68th career double-double. Summiel at 5.25 was the only other Hokie to average 1 per quarter, while Wenzel (3.75), King (3.5), Micheaux (3.25), Ekh (2.5), Amoore/Strack (2.25), and Baker (2) averaged at least 1 per half. As a whole, the Hokies were +31 in rebounding over the four game frame (+7.75).
Assists/Turnovers/Steals
The Hokies came back to Earth a little bit in the ATO realm, but still managed an impressive 65:45 ATO margin, with only Kitley and Summiel having more TOs than assists. Amoore paved the way with 26 assists, while King posted the best margin at 8:1, followed by Ekh (6:1) among those that played most of each game.
Factoring in the steals, which Amoore led with 7, the adjusted ATO margin dropped to 65:27. King and Ekh also posted steals, putting King at 8:-2 and Ekh at 6:0. Summiel righted herself here with two steals, giving her an AATO in the positive.
So at the end of this window, Kitley was the only player to not accrue an AATO in the positive. I think we can all agree that we can let that slide when she's the main recipient of those assists.
Experience/Depth
All 10 Hokies played, led by Amoore's 36 mpg, followed by Kitley's 34 in the 30 minute club. Averaging at least half the game were King (29.25) and Ekh (28.5). After those four, the rotation drops considerably, to Summiel (18.75), Wenzel (18.25), Baker (15.5), and Micheaux (10.75) as far as those who have earned at least two minutes per quarter.
I do feel sorry for Micheaux who has gotten lost in the shuffle of the depth of this team, going from 17.75, to 17.33, to 12.8, to 10.75 minutes per game in each window.
Strack (7.25) and Suffren (4) also averaged at least 1 minute per quarter played.
Next Window
The Hokies will open up the next set of games on the road down in Tallahassee. The #21 Seminoles are a dangerous team, but has been involved in a number of dragout battles over the last few games, pulling away from a three point lead against UNC in the last ninety seconds; pulling away from a three point lead against Clemson, late; and taking NC State to overtime; and pulling away from a 6 point lead against Wake Forest with 3 minutes to go. This tells me they are durable, but how much gas do they have left. F$U is led by last year's ACC FOY in Ta'Niya Latson, who is scoring as much as Kitley. Three other Noles average double figures, so all defenders will need to be on their game. FSU is one of the only ACC schools to be outscoring the Hokies (by 3.5 ppg). That may not mean much as the Hokies have the best scoring D in the conference, having just trounced #2 by 24, and FSU allowing 12.6 more than the Hurricanes had been. Statistically, the only area (besides scoring) where the Noles are better than the Hokies is in steals and turnover margin. This isn't too much of a surprise as the Hokies are an exhaustive defense, not a disruptive defense. FSU creates 5 more steals per game than the last place Hokies, but the turnover margin only favors them by 1.5. This is another four guard lineup, similar to Miami, but this time, the only real big that Kitley will have to deal with is a third of a foot shorter than her.
Staying on the road, the Hokies then travel to Durham. Duke is middle of the road in the ACC in most statistical categories, but the two most interesting are that they are the only ACC team to tally more blocked shots than the Hokies, and they are fourth worst in the ACC in 3pt% defense. This is because the Blue Devils will be guarding the post with 6-6 Kennedy Brown and 6-5 Camilla Emsbo. Kitley's going to earn her buckets. Duke plays mostly four guard lineups, but can get another big in there, if needed. None of the Blue Devils is particularly a scoring threat, as their top scorer only averages 11.5 and they have three other players who either are in, or are close to double figures.
Returning to Blacksburg, the Hokies will then take on a struggling Clemson. This could get ugly, as the Hokies are facing a team that is dead last in the ACC in scoring defense, while 8th in scoring offense, and 13th in scoring margin. The Tigers allow the 2nd highest FG%, and 2nd highest 3pt% for their opponents. They are also towards the bottom in rebounding, dead last in blocks, 2nd from last in TO margin. Like FSU, they don't have a lot of scoring options, although 6-0 F Amari Robinson does lead the team with almost 17 per game. I would say they only have 1 volume shooter from beyond the arc that may be dangerous, in Mackenzie Kramer, but she's only averaging a little less than 5 shots per game, and really only hitting 2. Like Duke, the Tigers don't have much height in the post
Rounding out this frame, it's SUPER TECHMO BOWL time. Georgia Tech is sitting at 12-4 as of this writing. The bees are middle of the conference in Scoring O, Scoring D, Scoring Margin, FG%, FGA%, 3pt%, 3ptA%, Rebounding, and TO Margin. The one thing they do well is find the shooter, as they are 3rd in the ACC in Assists (behind VT), and 2nd in ATO (behind VT). The one decided advantage they have is that they grab twice as many steals as the Hokies, which isn't hard, as the Hokies are dead last in the conference in that stat. They have four scoring threats, but, again, just one volume range threat. One name that may draw some attention is Jr F Kayla Blackshear. If that name sounds familiar, you may remember her big brother Kerry. As the Yellow Jackets F/C positions have only put up a combined average 58.8 minutes, with 31.5 being just Blackshear, it's most likely that the 6-1 "Big" will be matched up against Kitley down low.. They do have a 6-3 senior, but she's averaging only 17.1 minutes per, while a 6-6 Fr Spaniard averages around 7. TLDR, the Hokies will have a consistent height advantage for most of the game.
Prediction
The two home games could be Pittsburgh levels of ugly, especially the Clemson game. Duke and FSU can be challenging on the road. Both only average attendances of 1950 per home game, while the Hokies road games this season have seen serious spikes to 5600 (granted, those 3 true road games were LSU, Rutgers, and Wake Forest). Make no mistake, the Hokies are THE top draw in the ACC, as one of just 2 teams to average 5000 or more in attendance, leading Louisville by 140.
The Hokies have been a bit of a mixed bag away from Cassell, first getting blown out by LSU by 18, then punking Rutgers by 25, then pulling away late against a feisty Wake team. I want to say they go 1-1 on the road, with the loss most likely coming against FSU.
I want to say that, but I won't. Tech is the team to beat in the ACC and until somebody does that, I predict 4-0. The FSU game may be another nail-biter like NC State.
