By the (Advanced) Numbers: 2015 Season Preview

Hokie Nation always has high expectations and an optimistic outlook at the start of the football season. In the last three years, fans were snapped back to reality early on. Conference and national relevance always seems like it's another season away, but in 2015 the program needs a big step forward to keep the hope alive. What are the numbers' take on reality.

The Schedule

Multiple computer rankings project teams before the season begins. Most don't share their formulas, but those that do often factor in things like:

• How each team finished 2014
• Who left (usually based on how much they played)
• Who has arrived (often using recent recruiting) and is staying

There are a number of factors that humans would consider important that aren't usually used such as coaching changes, performance in practice (a 3-star recruit reported dominant in practice counts the same as one unlikely to see the field), and unusual circumstances (such as Michael Brewer transferring last year and having little time to practice with the team). So with them one must always consider whether those factors exist in any meaningful way. A good reality check is Las Vegas, which takes everything into account remarkably accurately.

For those computers with preseason rankings, here is how the Hokies' schedule plays out in terms of opponents rankings.

Two terms enter the season ranked above Virginia Tech: Ohio State — who more often than not is ranked preseason No. 1 — and Georgia Tech, who is surprisingly under the radar. Many of these can be combined into a predicted score difference and odds of winning, each of which factors in the game location.

Virginia Tech enters the season as a clear underdog in two contests — Ohio State and Georgia Tech — and a tossup in another, Miami. There are a whole slew of potential heart-breakers between ECU and the ACC slate. Seven games give the Hokies between a 60-90% chance of winning; any one of those individually looks like a probable win, but across all of them you're probably taking 1-3 painful losses. And then there's Purdue — despite recent struggles, it remains surprising to see them at a 2% chance of upsetting the Hokies in their own stadium!

Of course once a few games are played, there will be much better ratings of Tech and their opponents...luckily there will be a statistical preview of every game this season on TKP to keep up with it all.

Returning Production

Much has been made of how much production Tech returns in 2015, and for good reason. Any skill player that scored a touchdown in 2014 is on the roster this season. Before I dive into the numbers though, it's worth remembering that offensive production almost always hinges on the performance of the offensive line. Although we don't have statistics available on individual offensive line production, the team is losing considerable experience. Expectations from the skill players must correlate with what is expected from the offensive line.

Let's look closer at what production returns in 2015, and begin the analysis with rushing totals from 2014:

Every touchdown and nearly all of the rushing yardage from 2014 will return for 2015.

Again every touchdown and almost every yard though the year is back this season. This highlights just how important offensive line play will be: any improvement there will translate to increased production in both rushing a receiving.

Quarterback play will not be graphed as Brewer played the overwhelming majority of snaps in 2014 and will do so in 2015 barring injury or a major step back — the latter of which I do not anticipate.

Turning to the defense, we first examine pass disruption:

Over half of Tech's interception production returns, and that's a number one would like to see more of. However, most pass breakups are back on the field this season. If there is one area I'm comfortable with Tech replacing production, it is pass defense. The Hokies led the nation by only allowing 47.7% of passes to be completed.

Finally, we examine backfield havoc:

The Sacksburg defense, already infamous for raiding opponents' backfield at will, returns nearly 90% of production in sacks, tackles for loss, and quarterback hurries. This production goes beyond the first string and the defensive line should be able to stay fresh during games. The 2015 defensive line is poised to feast.

Expected Wins

Multiple sources have placed estimates on wins for Virginia Tech in 2015 including casinos, computer predictions, and betting "experts". The predicted totals for each source are:

In each case, the casino payouts on 8 wins were uneven such that the true estimate is actually somewhere higher than 8 wins (but likely less than 8.25). Optimism comes easy to fans, but this is a splash of cold water to the face. Both subjective (casinos and experts) and objective sources (computers) see 8-4 as the most likely regular season outcome for Virginia Tech.

What are the odds of each possible win total? Simulating the season 50,000 times produces:

From the simulation results, the Hokies have a 1.5% chance of not being bowl eligible, a 56% chance of either 8 or 9 wins, a nearly 22% chance of a 10-win regular season, and a .43% chance of an undefeated regular season.

What Needs to Improve

If the team is to outperform what computers and casinos expect, improvement is needed in a few areas, mostly on offense:

1. Offensive line on runs: Running backs gained 2.77 yards before first contact (90th in the country) and were able to get a first down on 3rd or 4th down and 2 yards or less to go just 61% of the time (108th).
2. Allowing sacks in passing situations: On standard downs the team was sacked on 3.8% of plays (41st) but in passing situations that number swelled to 11% (113th). When teams knew the Hokies would throw they were very successful in getting to the quarterback.
3. Big plays: The Hokies gave up 78 plays of 20 or more yards (122nd) while on offense the team only created 49 such plays (95th).
4. Kickoff returns: The average return by Tech special teams went 19.5 yards, 101st in the country.
5. Interceptions: The Hokies were tied for 97th in the country with 15 interceptions thrown, and 86th in interception rate (3.29% of attempts).

Improve those without a corresponding drop off in other areas, and the offense, and team as a whole, stands to make strides and reach the 9-10 win range.

My Forecast

Obviously it is difficult to forecast how things will shake out, especially when what little information we get out of practices mostly consists of 2-second Snapchat clips selectively shared. I'll save my emotions for the TKP season forecast and just go by the numbers and where I think adjustments should be made:

• I'm taking the over on the expected number of wins, and I project a 9-3 regular season record. That's based on Michael Brewer's development (along with Isaiah Ford and Cam Phillips) now that Brewer has had time practicing with the team. I will not cite injuries because that is part of football. Every team had injuries last year, and will have some this year.
• I'm estimating a slight improvement in offensive line play based on reports of Gallo looking good in practice and frankly not much room to get any worse.
• I predict a small-to-modest reduction in interceptions to somewhere in the 10-12 range. Many of those from last year cannot be blamed on the offensive line or receivers and rather were bad decisions — something I expect will still occasionally occur.
• The team will perform better on offense, but will still disappoint the fans who remember the Tyrod Taylor-led offense averaging 34 points a game in 2010. However, the improvement should allow the defense more rest and result in better field position and pay off on both sides of the ball.
• Isaiah Ford will not become the first VT 1000-yard receiver. Not only will the ball get spread around, especially to tight ends, but it is difficult to see the offensive line performing well enough, and Brewer throwing deep routes accurately enough, to create the kinds of explosive pass plays that tend to produce 1,000-yard college receivers. Ford has the talent but the circumstances aren't there.

Thanks to cfbstats.com, Football Outsiders, and masseyratings.com for providing the data for this article.