Halfwits and Wagers: Virginia

Prognosticators. Pundits. Sharps. Squares. Idiots. Call us whatever you'd like. We figured what better place to toss around harebrained opinions loosely based on factual evidence and statistics than The Key Play? This season, Pierson and I will be previewing each game around betting lines — both real and made up.

Happy Thanksgiving!

Do you need something to read while pretending to listen to a family member talk about the good old days? What about something to keep you occupied while you hide in the bathroom in an attempt to avoid the "when will you get married and/or have kids" line of questioning?

Well luckily for you, Pierson and I are here with fake gambling advice. A special holiday reminder: don't get drunk and actually think you can bet on any of these, because you'll end up broke and sad!

Let's start off fancy with a parlay: O/U: An 80% capacity crowd at Scott Stadium, O/U 70% of that crowd will be Hokies.

Brian: How big was Frank's retirement announcement for the Virginia ticket office? Three weeks ago, you could find tickets for this game online for way cheap, and now most of them are at least going for face value. That being said, this would have snuck over 80% even without the announcement. Despite how one-sided the last decade has been, this game is still the biggest football event in the state every year.

The over/under of 70% Hokies was set artificially high, because anything lower would be an easy bet. I'll say this, you have to take the under at kickoff (well, maybe not kickoff, but whenever those fans show up in the first quarter). But the odds of a 70% Hokie crowd will rise exponentially as the game progresses. Hopefully by the end, my dream of a 100% Hokie crowd will come true as Tech slowly annexes Scott Stadium and uses it for purposes to be determined.

Pierson: Ooooo, I like this one. I'm absolutely taking the over on 80% attendance. The attendance for the last three Commonwealth Cups at Scott Stadium are 85% (2013), 99% (2011) and 95% (2009). Both 2009 and 2011 had the Hoos highest home attendance on the year — 2011 was UVa's only winning season under the Head Ball Cop (8-5) — and 2013 ranked third behind BYU and Oregon, as the Hoos limped to a 2-10 finish. In short, Cavalier fans still show up for games against Virginia Tech and I don't expect Frank Beamer's swan song to be any different.

As for the 70% Hokie crowd, I'll take the under. I absolutely believe Hokies fans will do everything in their power to get into Scott Stadium for the game, but in order for a Tech Takeover, 18,450 or less Hoos would have to show up. Against an equally crummy Georgia Tech team, UVa still managed to convince 32,308 fans to waste an afternoon watching JV football. I think it will be one of the more pro-Hokie crowd in recent memory, but 70% seems like a tall task.

Over/Under 205 passing yards for Michael Brewer.

Brian: Under. I think he's dinged up, Frank said he had an ankle injury on Tech Talk Live, and I think the Hokies will play things pretty conservatively because of it. I bet we'll see a game plan similar to the one we saw a year ago, Brewer will take his shots, but for the most part play things underneath and hope that Travon McMillian and company can carry the load in the running game. This could be way off, especially if Cam Phillips or Isaiah Ford turns a short pass into a long gain, but a bum ankle for a guy who doesn't have a great arm to start with? Doesn't bode particularly well for big numbers.

Pierson: Over. Only Louisville (253 ypg) and Syracuse (163 ypg) managed less than 205 passing yards against the Hoos. UVa sports one of the nation's worst passing defenses, ranking #102 nationally defending the pass and second-to-last in interceptions with three picks on the year.

For what it's worth, the Hokies rank No. 74 in passing with 214 yards per game. They've maintained that number in the three games since Michael Brewer regained the starting job, averaging 215 ypg passing despite two contests (BC and GT) that utilized a ball-control game plan. The Hokies will come out firing on Saturday and look to exploit one of the weaker Hoos defenses in recent years.

Over/Under 120 total yards for Taquan "Rivals Ranked Me Higher Than Wyatt Teller" Mizzell.

Brian: I guess over, if only because he'll get a ton of touches? I know I make fun of him a lot, and my biggest fear is he'll come out and set the world on fire, which'll make me look like a clown. But considering he's never put together an eye-popping game, it seems like the chances of him doing so are slim.

Pierson: I'll take the over, for two reasons: (1) Smoke and Canaan Severin are the Hoos only real offensive threats (although backup running back Olamide Zaccheaus has been getting more involved of late); and (2) Smoke needs only 62 yards rushing and 39 yards receiving to be the first 700/700 player in college football since Percy Harvin in 2007. Don't be surprised to see them feed Smoke as much as possible purely for publicity purposes. When Mike London is interviewing for his next head coaching gig, the former defensive coordinator can attempt to compare his offensive system to Urban Meyer's in an attempt to sound well-rounded.

True/False: Travon McMillian goes over the thousand yard mark during this game.

Brian: McMillian would need to bust out a 120 yard game, something he's already surpassed twice this year (against Duke and Georgia Tech). I'm worried about him being banged up, and it's concerning he wasn't more effective against a Carolina defense begging Tech to run last weekend. I'm going to say false for all the reasons above, and because Sam Rogers will get at least 10 carries, potentially being the spoiler for Travon's quest to a thousand.

(Also, can someone explain to me why everyone likes Rogers so much, without using the words "heart", "leader", or "effort"? He's a great dude, but many of y'all are out here acting like he's your first born child and it confuses me.)

Pierson: The Hoos have been average against the run this season (No. 61 in the land, giving up 164.8 ypg), but their defense lacks the teeth of previous Jon Tenuta units. Last year, J.C. Coleman ran for 118 yards against a talented Cavalier defensive front seven, the most since David Wilson ripped off 153 in the Hokies' 2011 38-0 win. Travon needs 120 yards to top the 1,000 yard mark, and only Notre Dame's C.J. Prosise has managed more than that against the Hoos this season. I'll say "True," if only because I see the Hokies grinding out the clock late to seal the victory.

True/False: Isaiah Ford will break the single season touchdown reception record in Charlottesville.

Brian: GIMME THAT TRUE. His score against UNC tied the record of nine, meaning that he's one away from breaking it. This seems easy.

On a side note, when did Ford become one of the best receivers in Tech history? I feel like this has snuck up on me, even as he's set Blacksburg on fire with his performance this season. Even if leaves for the NFL after 2016, he has the chance to wreck havoc in almost every all-time and single season receiving category in the record books.

Pierson: True. Ford has touchdown receptions in consecutive games and is average one score per game over his last six. He needs to haul in one TD to surpass arguably the two most famous Hokies receivers in history, Andre' Davis and Antonio Freeman. Book it.

Over/Under 2.5 turnovers forced by the Virginia Tech defense.

Brian: There seems to be one simple truth to UVA's season: the more Matt Johns tries to make plays, the more turnovers he has. He's a guy I actually like, and terrified me down the stretch of last year's contest, because he's a gamer. He may not always look pretty, but sometimes he can just take the ball and make a play. As the starter this season he's seemed more responsible, and in his responsibility more Greyson Lambert-y. I think Bud Foster tries to set him on fire with the blitz, Johns presses and makes a few bad choices. Give me three and the over.

Pierson: I'm taking the over. I fully expect a hungry, mean and nasty defensive unit playing with a chip on their shoulder after last week's disappointing overtime loss to UNC. Pair that with a Hoos quarterback (Johns) that is tied for the most interceptions thrown in the nation (15), very little depth in the receiving corps, and a tailback (Smoke) looking to reach an individual milestone and you've got the potential for more bad decisions than Tiger Woods in a Perkins parking lot.

Was that joke past it's time? It was past it's time...

O/U: 48 hours after this game for Whit Babcock to name a new head coach.

Brian: Under. Monday afternoon word will get out that Whit has reached a deal with a new (probably Justin Fuente) coach (probably Justin Fuente). They'll have a presser on Tuesday and we'll all be able to get off the Pepto-Bismol-inducing ride on the coaching carousel and watch everyone else crawl all over each other for scraps. Long live Babcock!

(CONFESSION: I have 0 information telling me Fuente, it's just a guess. I figured I should just let everyone know that I'm actually making things up, as opposed to pretending to talk to anonymous sources to cover up the fact that I don't know a damn thing.)

Pierson: Over. I think Monday will be Frank's day to bid farewell, and Tuesday will be the day word gets out that Whit's got his man. Anything less has the potential to feel like Frank is being kicked to the curb, even if the rationale is to hit the recruiting and booster trail as soon as possible.

Matchup Over/Under: 51 Points

Brian: Under, and I'm not really sure why this is so high. Both offenses range between average and bad, while the defenses range between solid and average. Unless points come from turnovers or special teams, can you see these squads putting up over 25 a piece? Yeah, I didn't think so.

Pierson: Under. The point total hasn't reached 51 points since the Hokies' 42-13 victory in 2009, which came behind a significantly better offense led by Tyrod Taylor and RMFW (who was on his way to a then-school record 1,655 yards rushing). Both teams have shown some recent signs of life on offense, but I'm expecting a lower scoring grind-it-out type game.

Spread: Virginia Tech (-3.5)

Brian: This thing's coming down to a field goal, I feel it in my bones. Two of the last three years have come down to one possession, and these teams aren't separated by as much as we'd like to believe. I think Tech wins, but I'll guess something along the lines of 23-21 with an astoundingly dumb decision by Mike London late in the game to propel the Hokies to victory.

Pierson: Over. I'm picking Tech to win 24-20, the same score as last season. The Hokies are 2-0 when I pick them OUTRIGHT, so it seems only logical to do so one more time in 2015 to throw some positive vibes out there. Let's put a bow on Frank's amazing career and make it 12 straight cups y'all.

Over/Under 0.5 tears Frank will shed on camera on Saturday.

Brian: Depends on the outcome of the game. If they win, I wouldn't be stunned to see yet another business-like approach because he knows he'll finish out his career in Charlotte or Annapolis or Shreveport or TImbuktu (fine, I made the last one up). But if they lose, which is a real possibility, and he finishes his career with a loss in Hooville, the finality of the end will catch up to him. I'll hedge my bets and say we see a single tear after a win, because I can't think about the other outcome.

Pierson: Over. Watching Frank's post-Hokie Walk interview on College Gameday was enough to put me over the edge, as he easily hit the over on last week's line and he hadn't even set foot in the locker room. I think the Scott Stadium crowd will be classy on Saturday, regardless of the outcome. And when that final whistle sounds and Frank embraces each of his players and coaches, I will be shocked if he doesn't look like a thirteen year old girl watching, "The Notebook."

Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.