By The (Advanced) Numbers: Luck O' The Irish

It was noted after Virginia Tech's 20-30 loss to Georgia Tech the Hokies have strictly followed a W-W-W-L pattern since Frank Beamer announced his retirement.

I've noticed a trend in @VT_Football games since Frank Beamer announced his retirement. #Hokies #WLWW pic.twitter.com/wcUpfWEksU— Damian Salas (@vthokie) November 14, 2016

As the voice of objectivity here, I want to set the record straight that it is completely absurd that there is anything to that pattern other than a statistical anomaly. Can you imagine a team that is actually incapable of controlling their own outcomes and instead is stuck on some supernatural order? It doesn't make any logical sense whatsoever and is completely ridiculous.

But believe in it anyway because it feels soooooo good doesn't it?

Where the Season Stands

Virginia Tech is currently 7-3. The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:

The odds of each possible regular season win total are now:

A 10-win regular season is off the table, but Virginia Tech can still hit double-digits with an ACC Championship Game and/or bowl win. Of course it is the fault of fans already looking ahead to such things that the Hokies lost to the Yellow Jackets. This week Virginia Tech travels to Notre Dame to take on the 4-6 Fighting Irish.

Rankings and Computer Predictions

The computer rankings and predictions for each team:

Although Virginia Tech maintains a distinct ranking advantage, that gap has closed considerably recently and given home field, computers are split on the likely winner. The odds of a 1-point underdog winning is 47.0%.

Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:

Both Tech and Notre Dame feature above average offenses and very good defenses, with little difference..

When Virginia Tech Has the Ball

Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings. All statistics are now opponent-adjusted.

Who has the advantage in the passing and rushing game when the Tech offense has the ball?

As evidenced Saturday, having a distinct advantage doesn't necessarily mean things will play out accordingly. Teams may scheme to offset an obvious imbalance, or may find individual mismatches more appealing. One of those will likely have to happen on Saturday, for the Hokies to have any success running the ball.

Offensive and defensive line performance are compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:

Now let's take a look at the FEI personality traits of the Hokie offense versus the Irish defense:

Some good news after the Georgia Tech game, Notre Dame's defense has not been able to force many turnovers.

The Virginia Tech offense is closest in personality to:

1. Nevada
2. Utah
3. TCU

The Notre Dame defense is closest in personality to:

1. Toledo
2. Western Kentucky
3. Nebraska

When Notre Dame Has the Ball

Again, examine pass-run comparisons first:

Virginia Tech remains very good against the pass, but whether the Hokies can stop the Irish's rushing attack remains to be seen.

Offensive and defensive line performance are again compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:

As for personality traits:

As with Notre Dame, Virginia Tech's defense has not been particularly good at creating turnovers.

The Virginia Tech defense is closest in personality to:

1. Indiana
2. Temple
3. Georgia

The Notre Dame offense is closest in personality to:

1. North Carolina
2. Wyoming
3. Colorado State

Special Teams

First we look at the Hokies' kicking units:

If only the Hokies could return kickoffs or punt.

When the Irish kick:

Then again, the Hokies' punting could be worse...

Who To Watch Out For

There is no shortage of talent on the Notre Dame roster, but who has produced thus far this season?:

1. Quarterback DeShone Kizer is the second leading rusher on the team so $#&@.
2. WR trio Equanimeous St. Brown (17.27 yards per catch), Torii Hunter Jr. (13.71 YPC), and Kevin Stephenson (19.52 YPC) all produce yards in big chunks and will be difficult to defend.

Statistical Key to the Game

Notre Dame has not had the luck of the Irish on turnovers this season, losing an average of 2.28 points per game thanks to bad fortune. Will that turn around this weekend?

The Stats that Define Virginia Tech's Season

Revisiting my column from this summer on the stats that will define the season, here is how the Hokies performed thus far (each listed as VT - Opponent):

I will not value time of possession.

Statistical Prediction

I'm getting pretty good at this! The W-W-W-L pattern means there is a 100% chance of a victory so it's just a question of by how much. Notre Dame may have turned a corner after a 44-6 dismantling of Army, is talented enough to keep it close (all six Irish losses have been within 8 points), and 99.6% of Hokie Nation will complain about a running quarterback.

Virginia Tech 21, Notre Dame 20

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.