By the (Advanced) Numbers: Slaying Goliath

In so many ways, Clemson is Virginia Tech. Both are mid-sized, public, land grant universities located in the Appalachian foothills. Each an ACC member, and until recently neither had a lengthy history of national championships (the Tigers won a 1981 football championship, two men's soccer championships from the 80's, and a 2003 men's golf championship). Both lie in decent recruiting grounds, but neither in a true hotbed like Florida or Texas. Each has been a pretty good landing spot for a head coach, but not as attractive as some blue blood schools.

As of 2014, Clemson athletics brought in $69 million and spent $67 million; Virginia Tech brought in $70 million and spent $66.5 million. That year the university gave Dabo Swinney a new contract that would pay him $3.15 million, right at about the salary given to Justin Fuente two years later. Each has received a drastically different return on their investment.

Two national championships and two additional championship game appearances later, Clemson athletics is bringing in $120 million as of 2018 and the Hokies "just" $98 million. The histories of the two schools, along with their diverging trajectories recently, speak to not only what could have been for Virginia Tech, but also what could be with the right hire.

Now the two schools face each other, in a game that's just another big ACC underdog to dispense with for Dabo, but a potential job-saving win for Justin Fuente.

Where the Season Stands

Virginia Tech is currently 4-5. The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:

The odds of each possible regular season win total are now:

Look at that - a ¾ chance that those who stick things out and keep turning in to Hokie football will see at least one more win this season! And a ¼ chance the 40 hours you spent invested in watching games live will be rewarded with a 4-7 record!

Based on FPI, the odds of each ACC team beating the ACC teams on their schedule is:

Believe it or not, I've figured out a scenario that puts Virginia Tech in the ACCCG. It involves a massive recruiting scandal, a COVID mutation, and some slightly unrealistic ACC rule changes...

Virginia Tech Leads the Nation In...

Among Power 5 teams, only Oklahoma and Oklahoma State have more opponent penalties per game than Virginia Tech at 8.1. Opponents are giving up 2.7 more penalties per game than the Hokies (OU's differential is just 1.0 and OSU's is 1.2) for an average of 22.5 additional penalty yards.

Clemson loses about 3.5 yards per game due to penalties.

Rankings and Computer Predictions

The computer rankings and predictions for each team:

This is where analytics really show their value. While most humans using the eye test might conclude Clemson and Virginia Tech are essentially equals, the computers see right through the illusion and universally agree that the Tigers are in fact considerably better and likely to completely embarrass the Hokies in a primetime game. Joke is on them in the end though — these Hokies have no dignity left and cannot be embarrassed any further than they already have this season. The odds of a 22-point underdog winning is 6.6%. Somebody post the Dumb and Dumber quote.

Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:

I mean, on offense the gap isn't THAT big between the two teams. But try not to stare directly into the defensive column.

Who To Watch Out For

With a roster loaded with 4- and 5-star recruits, it's hard to narrow down to just a few. Additionally, Clemson has players you don't really need to be introduced to because they're already national names...starting with:

1. QB Trevor Lawrence is 9th nationally in passer rating, 10th in completion rate at 70.6%, 12th in YPA at 9.8, and 13th in TD's with 19.
2. RB Travis Ettiene is 4th national in combined rushing/receiving yards at 1,203; he would be the leading received for Virginia Tech with 511 receiving yards.
3. WR Amari Rodgers is averaging 14 YPC en route to 813 yards receiving and six touchdown receptions.

Statistical Key to the Game

As though there is only one statistic that could suddenly tip this in the Hokies favor...

When David is trying to slay Goliath in football, the formula is typically to try to not get completely blown out in efficiency, limit possessions, and win the turnover battle. Let me provide a sliver of hope by examining each in reverse order.

Winning the turnover battle: Virginia Tech currently averages a +0.4 turnover margin per game to Clemson's 1.0. On the surface, that doesn't sound great for the Hokies. But Clemson's defense is No. 8 nationally with 1.6 interceptions per game, and Virginia Tech only throws 0.7 per game. Both teams recover about 0.6 fumbles per game, and Virginia Tech fumbles 1.2 times per game to Clemson's 1.4. So Clemson's strong turnover margin is predominantly based on interceptions, but the Hokies are good at limiting interceptions, mostly by a high run percentage (the team is 48th in interceptions thrown per game but 75th in interception rate). Which leads to...

Limit possessions: The Hokies are 12th nationally in rushing play percentage at 62%. This is the classic way to drain the clock and limit possessions and thus a natural fit for the Hokie offense. What's not in the team's favor has been 3rd-down conversions at 35.5% — 101st nationally. Helping the cause, however, is penalties, with Tech opponents committing 0.06 penalties per play to Clemson's 0.04.

Keep pace in efficiency: Clemson features perhaps the best quarterback and running back in college football, so keeping pace definitely requires moving the ball offensively. Win the first two categories and you don't have to match Clemson, but you at least need to be in the ballpark. But what if I told you that Virginia Tech has the edge in yards per rush, and is essentially tied with Clemson in yards per pass? Or that Virginia Tech gains more yards per play overall? And that really the only difference is number of plays and converting yards into points?

Based on all that, while the Hokies certainly aren't favored the path to David slaying Gloiath isn't extremely far-fetched. The biggest concern among all of these for me is converting third downs to limit possessions, a stat that has haunted the Hokies this season. But if they can achieve a good day in that category and hit 50% or better, there might be something memorable salvaged from this season.

Statistical Prediction

Don't get me wrong — the Hokies will most likely get housed on national television Saturday night. However, it's up to Justin Fuente to motivate the team to do something special and possibly save his job. I'm not advocating for a win to save the head coach's job, but BTAN always advocates for a Virginia Tech victory.

Virginia Tech 34, Clemson 31

As always a thanks to ESPN, Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.