PAC-whatever fallout and the future of college football

The Athletic is reporting the details of the proposed PAC12 TV deal:

According to three people with knowledge of the terms, Apple offered the members a five-year deal with an annual base rate of $23 million per school (a subsequent counteroffer lifted it to $25 million), with incentives based on projected subscribers to a Pac-12 streaming product akin to Apple's MLS League Pass.

At 1.7 million subscribers, the per-school payout would match the $31.7 million average that Big 12 schools will reportedly receive from ESPN and Fox beginning in 2025. But Kliavkoff encouraged the room to think much bigger — at 5 million subscribers, the schools would eclipse $50 million per year, closer to the deep-pocketed SEC and Big Ten than the ACC or Big 12.

For those who don't have a subscription to The Athletic, here's one of their free podcasts about it.

There's a lot to discuss here:

• Oregon and Washington could have likely gotten just as much money in the PAC as they are getting in the B10 (reportedly $35-$40m), though it would not have been a guarantee. Disappointing to see. Seems to me like they weren't that interested in trying to make the P12 work.
• However, my understanding is that Larry Scotts's PAC-12 Network required all of the schools to own their broadcasting costs (unlike every other conference, which outsources this to ESPN/Fox/Whoever) - this resulted in significantly higher operating costs for P12 Athletic Departments, which likely drove them to be a bit more risk adverse. This was discussed a bit on a recent episode of Split Zone Duo.
• Maybe I'm biased due to my position in life/interests of my social circles, but I feel like 5m subscribers for a PAC12 league pass is quite attainable. I'd consider buying it, and I have no ties to the west coast; I just think the P12 is probably the most interesting conference to watch this year. If ESPN offered to trade us (The ACC) this deal for our current deal, I would jump at it.
• Ultimately, I think this signals that college sports are opposed to streaming - presidents/ADs are risk advers and more interested in guarantees than potential upside. Coaches seem convinced that streaming will hurt recruiting. As a cord cutter, someone who works in the tech sector, and someone who is interested in business of streaming, this is kind of disappointing.

Now that I've discussed the (mostly but not completely) unbiased reality, it's time for me to step up onto my soapbox:

• Living in Atlanta, I've always encountered a lot of self described "SEC Fans" - people who aren't a fan of any single team in the conference, but just care about the conference at large (or even people who will cheer for their conference rival to win OOC games). I've always scoffed at these people (and will continue to do so), but I get it... The SEC is a group of likeminded institutions, all in the southeast, most (not all) in the rural southeast. There's a culture that everyone in this part of the country understands (whether you like or support it is a different issue, but I digress). It is literally not possible to be a fan of the 'Big 10' - Culturally, there is nothing connecting Maryland, Iowa, and Oregon. (as an aside, I think this is the biggest challenge the ACC faces - the footprint is too large and culturally diverse, but again, I digress). The B10 used to be the conference of the midwest. That identity started dying just over a decade ago, but now it is completely dead. Not only has the B10 killed their identity, but they also killed the West Coast football fan. This was a murder-suicide.
• Not only did the B10 destroy themselves and P12, but they are also hurting the 12 team playoff before it even started. The whole point of the 12 team playoff is to be inclusive of the entire country. Initially, I was very much opposed to the 12 team playoff (if you saw any of comments here when it was initially announced, you know this), but I started coming around to it after the SEC acquisition of Texas/OU. Now I'm back to hating it more than ever before - if there's no west coast football conference, there's no way to insure the west coast is included each year. It defeats the whole purpose.
• 2023 is really the end of a era... It's the last year of:
• The PAC-12
• The 4-team playoff/NY6
• The 14-team SEC
• The 14-team B12

Finally, The Hill I Will Die On:
There's a lot of complaining about NIL/transfer portal hurting the sport. Any damage resulting from these rule changes PALES in comparison to the damage that realignment has done. There's one way out out of this: College football needs to secede from the NCAA, start their own league, with centralized and empowered leadership. As long as their are a handful of conferences, each acting with their own interests (not the interests of the athlete or the fan), this will fail.

Thank you for coming to my TED Talk *steps off soap box, exits stage left*