Hokies Survive Bizarre Second Quarter For Strongest Win of 2024

If you look at the depth chart on OurLads for Old Dominion's football team, you won't see the name Quinn Henicle's name listed on the two-deep. That's because, despite what the announcing team had said, Henicle was likely the fourth string quarterback on the Monarchs roster, behind starter Grant Wilson, Boston College transfer Emmett Morehead, and last night's starter Colton Joseph. The true freshman from Downingtown, PA was the last scholarship quarterback left on the roster when he replaced Joseph after two possessions. After a short three-and-out drive, all it took was one miscommunication for Henicle to win a footrace and kickstart 15 minutes of sheer panic in the hearts of Hokie nation.

The Hokies did not play a complete, end-to-end, 60 minute game like so many of us had hoped for; but they also did not fold after a miserable second quarter that felt like another road loss in Norfolk to an inferior. Instead, the Hokies broke the streak of road teams losing in the series in a (dare I say it?) comfortable win against the spread. The Hokies had their best game of the season in terms of net EPA (unadjusted for ODU's positive fourth quarter which came while trailing by 27 against the second team defense, I might add).

The expectation was that Virginia Tech needed to establish the run early, and set the tone behind a heavy dose of Kyron Drones and Bhayshul Tuten. Instead it was the passing offense that lead to the hot start for the Hokies. Jaylin Lane converted a 3rd and 14 early to keep the drive going, followed by a 19 yard Tuten run, and a 25 yard touchdown pass to Lane (complete with Parker Clements doing jumping jacks out wide). The following drive, Drones turned an awkward play fake turned fumble, into a 61 yard gain, with Lane again tiptoeing down the sideline for 46 yards with another 15 yards added by penalty. The offense sputtered in the redzone before Drones completed a Jalen Hurts-esque tush push on 4th and 1 from the goalline.

Despite the hot start throwing the ball, the Hokies passing attack wasn't the efficient attack we saw in the second half of games against Vanderbilt and Marshall. Drones finished 15/26 (57.7% completion percentage) with 176 yards, one passing touchdown and one interception. 106 of those passing yards went to Jaylin Lane, all of which occurred in the first quarter (Drones would complete two more passes to Lane; a catch for 2 yards in the second quarter, and a catch for -2 in the third). Virginia Tech's success rate was 30.8% throwing the ball, and they did not have an explosive catch after Stephen Gosnell's 21 yard reception towards the end of the first quarter. Outside the first quarter passing attack success, the Hokies had a negative EPA/pass the rest of the game (-.333/pass attempt the remainder of the game). One area of improvement though was that Kyron Drones did not take a sack and showed some improvement in the scrambling game. Drones still left some yards on the field, but his willingness to become a more physical runner will become necessary as the Hokies move on to Rutgers and Miami in the next two weeks.

The Hokies did eventually wear down the surprisingly stout ODU defense, which held a resurgent South Carolina program to only 23 points in their season opener. The Hokies finished the day with 289 rushing yards, on 51 carries, good for a 5.7 yard/carry average, and three rushing touchdowns led by Drones (117 yards on 12 carries, 9.8 yards/carry and 1 TD) and Tuten (115 yards on 21 carries, 5.5 yards/carry, and 2 TDs). The Hokies had a success rate of 41.2% on rushing attempts (including garbage time), and 6 explosive rushing plays over 15 yards. This included Drones' crushing 53 run when he ran over two ODU defenders, and two fantastic touchdowns by Tuten of 16 and 22 yards.

It did take the Hokies a while to get started on the ground. The Hokies barely had an EPA over 0 rushing the ball in the first half despite the tush push touchdown early. Removing the tush push touchdown, Virginia Tech actually had a negative EPA on rushing attempts in the first half (-1.413 on 20 carries, -0.067 per attempt). Of the Hokies 21 first half rushing attempts, 10 went for less than 2 yards. However, the Hokies did not register a rush of less than 0 yards the entire game.

The Hokies did their damage in the second half, starting with the massive Drones run in the third. Virginia tech ran for 212 yards in the second half on 30 carries, good for over 7.1 yards/carry. On potential area of concern is that this came on mostly explosive plays. Removing the 4 explosive plays, the Hokies ran for 99 yards on 26 carries, good for 3.8 yards/carry. Only 9 second half rushes went for 2 yards or less.

By no means was this a perfect game. The offense got bogged down for long stretches in the second and third quarters, with more maddening play calls from Offensive Coordinator Tyler Bowen. John Love's streak of 18 field goals made in a row was broken in the second quarter (on a play that ESPN is crediting as a block to ODU). The defensive, outside of two drives in the second quarter, played about how you would expect against a team facing a true freshman quarterback with absolutely zero film. But the Hokies survived an opponent, that for better or worse, has gotten the best of them in their own stadium. Virginia Tech survived an early injury to starting tackle Xavier Chaplin and stretches of injuries to Ali Jennings and Bhayshul Tuten. For a team that looked dead in the water late in the second quarter, the Hokies showed real signs of progress as the game went on. The question remains whether it will be enough to compete with a tough Big Ten team in Rutgers next week and a suddenly strong ACC schedule throughout the rest of the season.

Writers note:

Moving forward, I will try to start doing some aggregate success rate/explosive play, and offensive/defensive EPA charts throughout the NCAA next week. I wanted to get through the out of conference schedule first before looking at some of the larger trends in football. I expect the Hokies would probably grade out slightly above average so far if we're not adjusting for strength of schedule.