Hokies Win Ugly at Home, Advanced Metrics Look Ahead to Syracuse

*Note from the author: despite my efforts to get one of these done every week, I'm in a very busy time in my life so I may not be able to finish out the year. I get married before the Duke game and that is consuming a lot of my time and energy. Below is an abridged version write up on the Georgia Tech game and my advanced preview of Syracuse.

For only the second time in the Brent Pry era, the Virginia Tech Hokies won a game where they were outplayed, resulting in a net negative EPA at the end of regulation. Outside of an ugly, lopsided win against Old Dominion to start the 2023 season, this is not something that Virginia Tech has done often in recent years. They have actually had more net positive EPA losses (@ ODU 2022, @ Marshall 2023, @ NC State 2023, and Rutgers 2024) than net negative wins. (The College Football Database API does not calculate EPA for special teams plays, which likely would have an impact on a lot of these games).

It may not always be pretty or enjoyable, but good teams find ways to win ugly games and the Hokies did that last Saturday. In terms of success rate, the Hokies offense finished 102nd out of 113 FBS teams in play last week (UMass hosted FCS Wagner in Week 9). Outside of passing explosiveness (56th overall) there wasn't much going right on a down-to-down basis on offense. The good news is that Georgia Tech about the same as Virginia Tech in every category.

• Success rate: VT 102nd, GT 105th
• Explosive rate: VT 77th , GT 65th
• Passing success rate: VT 94th, GT, 98th
• Passing explosive rate: VT 58th, GT 57th
• Rushing success rate: VT T-96th, GT T-96th
• Rushing explosive rate: VT T-74th, GT T-74th

Lots to work on, but certainly a strong enough defensive performance for another win and another cover.
Coming up this Sunday, the Hokies head to the dreaded Carrier Dome JMA Wireless Dome, an arena that is as bad as its sightlines. Syracuse has looked strong in victories and pretty dreadful in their losses to Stanford and Pittsburgh. On offense, Syracuse had a top 25 success rate prior to their loss to Pittsburgh, lead by a strong passing attack (4th in success rate, but only 69th in passing success).

Quarterback Kyle McCord has a quick trigger, getting the ball out at one of the fastest rates in the ACC, but beyond that, their rushing attack has been limiting. Virginia Tech should look to exploit what has been so far a leaky rushing defense, which while being top 50 in down-to-down success rate is 106th in allowed rushing explosive plays. However, returning linebacker Marlowe Wax may make a significant difference in the rushing game. Against the pass, Syracuse has stopped the big plays (36th in defensive passing explosive rate), but 120th in defensive passing success rate. Overall they're 102nd in success rate and 74th in explosive rate on defense.

If the Hokies can find the home run plays from the rushing game, and we see a more efficient Drones like we saw against Stanford and Boston College, then the Hokies should stand a decent chance. Additionally, if the defense can continue to put pressure on the quarterback, and force McCord to take a half second longer on some throws then Virginia Tech should have a decent chance. But if the Syracuse defense continues after a decent performance against Pittsburgh, then the Hokies could find themselves in a tight one score game.