By the (Advanced) Numbers: North Carolina

I grew up in southeast Georgia where armadillos are constantly playing Frogger with cars. An armadillo is woefully unprepared to successfully cross the road when a car is approaching and ends up a victim of his own indecisiveness and instinct to jump when scared (often into a bumper). The car, however, is also inept at missing the armadillo. It can neither anticipate the movements of the armadillo and when it attempts to straddle it, it inevitably hits the bumper or bottom of the car.

This describes the clash on Saturday between Virginia Tech's inept deep passing game and North Carolina's inept deep pass defense. More below.

Let's first start with the computer rankings for each team:

UNC has clearly disappointed thus far relative to expectations, and generally ranks lower than the Hokies. One inaccurate computer has Virginia Tech ranked No. 16!

However, they are playing at home, so predictions are fairly split on the outcome:

The odds of a 2.5-point favorite winning are 55.5%.

Now let's look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages before diving deeper.

By S&P+, these are two evenly-rated offenses but VT thus far has a substantially better defense.

When Virginia Tech Has the Ball

Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings.

First, a note to clarify how S&P+ breaks down teams. In the first 7 weeks of the season, the overall offensive and defensive S&P+ numbers are adjusted for opponent, but the individual personality characteristics (rushing, passing, standard downs, and passing downs) are not. FEI personality stats are also unadjusted at this point in the season. So those characteristics seen here should be considered relative to one another and not as a true overall advantage at this point.

Who has the advantage in the passing and rushing game?

The Brewer-led offense has a clear advantage in multiple areas, especially passing downs. The Hokies match up very well in passing situations, where Tech has succeeded despite defenses knowing it's likely a pass. The Tar Heels have inexplicably struggled in such situations and given up numerous big plays. Brewer has shown some difficulty putting the right depth on longer passes, but if he can do a decent job and avoid bad decisions and passes Saturday the defense should give him plenty of opportunities to make them pay. Armadillo, meet car. The car is trying to let you cross the road, so let's see if you can get out of your own way and succeed.

Now let's take a look at the FEI personality traits of the Tech offense versus the UNC defense.

Slight advantage across the board with the most important stat — efficiency (which IS opponent adjusted) — giving the Hokies a huge advantage. If Tech's not moving the chains, things are going very wrong.

The Virginia Tech offense is closest in personality to:

1. Central Michigan
2. Washington
3. Idaho

The North Carolina defense is closest in personality to:

1. Troy
2. Buffalo
3. Louisiana Lafayette

I kid you not.

When North Carolina Has the Ball

Again, look at pass-run comparisons first:

Bud's D comes out ahead on all metrics, with a little more advantage against the run than the pass. As for personality traits:

Again things are leaning Hokie, but the ability to prevent explosive drives is still haunting the defense and may be something the Tar Heels are able to exploit.

The Virginia Tech defense is closest in personality to:

1. Oklahoma State
2. Florida
3. Air Force

The North Carolina offense is closest in personality to:

1. Clemson
2. Oklahoma State
3. LSU

Who To Watch Out For

1. Sophomore WR Mack Hollins has 11 receptions for 277 yards this season. Do the math.
2. QB Marquise Williams is a threat to run or throw, with a 141 QBR thus far and a team-leading 38 rushes for almost 4 yards per.

Statistical Key to the Game

By far the Hokies' biggest advantage comes in the passing game, and moving the ball through the air should not be difficult. However, if those drives don't turn into enough points this could be anyone's game. It's tempting to look at Brewer's interceptions for the game, but I don't know that the UNC pass defense will be in position to take advantage of errant throws as much. Instead, I'm looking at Virginia Tech's points-per-red-zone-trip. If Tech's driving like we expect, but then stalling as they approach the goal line and turning to predictable run plays, they might have trouble scoring enough to stay ahead.

My Prediction

Fearful of another jinx, I will make no mention of avoiding serious injuries this week.

Instead I think Brewer's aggressiveness pays off and despite 1 or 2 interceptions, 350 yards passing might be in the cards for the Hokie offense. I think 2 TD's come off of long passing plays where the Tech WR's get behind the defense and the Hokies score 5+ points per trip into the red zone.

Virginia Tech 31, North Carolina 24

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.