By the (Advanced) Numbers: Wake Forest

When I was a kid A Nightmare on Elm Street came out and shockingly my parents allowed me to watch it on video at home with my older brother and his friends. If you haven't seen it, it is a horror classic that despite the usual 80's cheese is still tense to watch as an adult. As a kid, I would cover my eyes when I knew Freddy was going to take another victim, but couldn't help peeking between my fingers. I knew something terrible was going to happen to some naive teenager on the screen but had to watch.

On Saturday, you might feel the temptation to cover your eyes before each Wake Forest offensive snap, but if you can bear to peek through your fingers and watch the line of scrimmage the carnage may rival the worst seen on Elm Street.

Consider:

1. By S&P, Virginia Tech's defensive line is No. 5 nationally in "adjusted line yards", the rushing yardage attributed to the line (so adjusting for opponent, the Hokie d-line allows the opposing o-line to create rushing yards at the 5th-worst rate in the country). This is the primary rushing metric for line play.
2. Also by S&P, Tech's d-line is No. 1 nationally in adjusted sack rate. This is the primary passing metric for line play.
3. Wake Forest's offensive line rates 128th (worst in FBS) and 121st, respectively, for these statistics.

To recap, a defensive line that is 5th best in preventing rushing yards at the line will face the offensive line that is the worst at creating them, and the d-line that is the best at creating sacks will face the offensive line that is 7th-worst at allowing them.

As usual the computer rankings for each team:

That feels good. By computer rankings, Wake Forest is the easiest FBS opponent VT faces this season. This team is bad even by Wake Forest standards — consider that in his record-breaking game, Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon produced more yards (in three quarters no less) than Wake Forest has the entire season.

The predictions (mostly) follow, although somewhere in this world someone came up with a prediction system that has Wake Forest favored:

The odds of a 15-point favorite winning are 86.2%.

Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:

A couple less interceptions, maybe healthy knees for one starting RB, possibly Wyatt Teller starting earlier in the season, and perhaps things would be different. But alas no. Even against lowly Wake Forest, the Loeffler offense is at a disadvantage against the opposing defense. Sigh.

When Virginia Tech Has the Ball

Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings. All statistics are now opponent-adjusted.

Who has the advantage in the passing and rushing game when the Tech offense has the ball?

Oh please gain yards on 1st and 2nd down and avoid passing situations. Please deliver Duke J.C. Coleman and Duke offensive line play. Please.

Now let's take a look at the FEI personality traits of the Hokie offense versus the Demon Deacon defense:

Methodical drives, you're a faithful friend to the Hokie community.

The No. 83 Virginia Tech offense is closest in personality to:

1. Kansas
2. UConn
3. Florida International

The No. 55 Wake Forest defense is closest in personality to:

1. Air Force
2. Tulane
3. Kansas

No one wants to be compared to Kansas.

When Wake Forest Has the Ball

Again, examine pass-run comparisons first:

Tee it up, Bud.

As for personality traits:

Off. The. Chart.

The No. 1 Virginia Tech defense is closest in personality to:

1. UTSA
2. Florida State (I need a shower now)
3. Nebraska

The No. 124 (out of 128) Wake Forest offense is closest in personality to:

1. Eastern Michigan
2. SMU
3. UTSA

Special Teams

First we look at the Hokie's kicking units:

Those expecting a bigger advantage should know that special teams is one thing Wake Forest does well, ranking 5th in the country (Duke slipped to No. 2 after the two missed FG's for those curious). When Wake kicks:

How bad would Wake Forest be if their special teams weren't this good?

Who To Watch Out For

This section is a little difficult to do for Wake Forest but here goes:

1. Punter Alexander Kinal is 3rd in the country in punts/game (not really something to brag about).
2. Kicker Mike Weaver has made 13 of 14 field goals.

Statistical Key to the Game

Wake Forest is a bad offense that is especially bad at running. If they have any success rushing, we may be in trouble. But big upsets typically require winning the turnover battle, so my key to the game will be not losing the turnover battle...neutral or in Tech's favor and it's hard to imagine Wake Forest winning a battle of moving the ball.

My Prediction

The Hokies stand to become bowl-eligible with a win, and must feel good after the win against Duke. I seriously doubt they look ahead to UVa and take this for granted, especially since almost nothing has come easy this season.

It is incredibly tough to shutout even a weak opponent (38-0) and I'd virtually never predict it. But I think the VT defense is absolutely dominant and piles up tackles for loss. Wake Forest only puts points on the board thanks to a couple of decent special teams plays but never appears a threat to put together a sustained drive. Ken Ekanem has a big game as the entire DL completely destroys Wake's helpless OL. It is incredibly satisfying to watch, and Hokie fans will actually look forward to being on defense to watch the carnage.

Virginia Tech 24, Wake Forest 6

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.