Virginia Tech Baseball: 2015 ACC Tournament Primer

I've written about the Hokies ad nauseum in this space over the past four months. It's been a true roller-coaster ride of a season, full of both triumphant victories and head-scratching defeats. The Hokies were talented enough to sweep No. 1 Virginia and experienced enough to come within a heartbreaking error of winning a series at Florida State, one of the toughest places to play in the entire country. But they were also inconsistent enough to drop a series apiece to Wake Forest, Duke, and Pittsburgh, all of whom will be watching the ACC tournament from the comfort of their own living rooms. So what should we make of the Hokies chances this week? If you've followed this team at all, the only realistic answer is "who knows?". While a return to the ACC championship game after just a two year absence may seem improbable, it's certainly not impossible. After all, last year's World Series did feature two teams that had to survive "win or go home" wild card games just to reach their respective divisional series.

One thing is known with near perfect certainty—the Hokies won't be receiving an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. If the Hokies seniors want to extend their noteworthy careers a few weeks longer, they'll have to win it all in Durham. Thankfully for Virginia Tech, the Hokies have the talent to do just that.

It all starts with seniors Alex Perez, Brendon Hayden, and Erik Payne, who together make up one of the most dangerous 3-4-5 combinations in the country. Perez, the Hokies captain and unquestioned leader, is hitting .320 on the year and leads the Hokies with seven triples. Payne, a South Carolina transfer playing his first season as a Hokie, leads the team in BA (.347) and RBI's (53). Hayden, a powerful lefty who is a threat to leave the park every time he steps to the plate, leads the Hokies with 17 doubles and 11 home runs. Together, the trio of seniors have accounted for more than half of the team's RBI's and just over 71% of its home runs.

On the mound, the Hokies are led by Sean Keselica and Aaron McGarity. Keselica was nearly unhittable to start the year, but has come back down to Earth after dealing with some late-season arm fatigue. McGarity began the season as the Hokies Saturday starter but was moved to the back end of the bullpen in order to shore up a beleaguered group of relievers. While McGarity has been invaluable in relief, his absence from the starting rotation left a void that the Hokies are still trying to fill. Kit Scheetz, Jon Woodcock, and Packy Naughton have each had some success in starting roles, but all three have struggled at times. If the Hokies hope to make a run this week, the starting pitchers will need to step up.

And then there's the bullpen. Early in the year, the group was so volatile that no lead, regardless of size, seemed even remotely safe. In one two game stretch against Florida State, the bullpen surrendered a preposterous 17 runs. But since McGarity was moved mid-season, late game leads have become far less stressful. They haven't been perfect by any means, but Luke Scherzer, Connor Coward, and Chris Monaco have teamed up with McGarity to provide Pat Mason with a serviceable bullpen over the second half of the season.

One thing the Hokies don't lack is experience. Four starters from the 2013 ACC Championship game remain on the roster, and all four (Brendon Hayden, Alex Perez, Sean Keselica, and Kyle Wernicki) will be called upon in big spots for the Hokies. Throw in Erik Payne, a college baseball veteran who crushed a bases-clearing triple in the College World Series for South Carolina in 2012, and Pat Mason should have no qualms about how his team will handle the pressure of the postseason.

ACC Tournament

Here's the full tournament schedule. TV information is listed on the webpage. The winners of the two play-in games will advance to pool play. The winners of each pool will then meet in a one-game, winner-take-all championship. As is the case in basketball, the ACC champion will receive an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.

Play-In Games

#7 Virginia (33-19, 15-15) vs. #10 Georgia Tech (32-22, 13-17) - Tuesday, 11 A.M.

If you want to see two teams headed in completely different directions, look no further than the first play-in game of the ACC tournament. Virginia, fresh off a sweep of North Carolina in Chapel Hill, takes on Georgia Tech, who limps in after being outscored 42-5 by Miami last weekend.

With ace Nathan Kirby still unavailable due to a lat strain and a recent bout with mono, Virginia will trot out junior Josh Sborz (2-2, 2.49 ERA, 12 saves) to presumably face junior Jonathan King (4-4, 3.24 ERA) of Georgia Tech.

The Cavaliers have won six of their last seven while the Yellow Jackets have lost five of their last six. While the old baseball adage does say "momentum is only as good as the next day's starting pitcher", I'd expect Virginia to stay hot and defeat Georgia Tech. And if the Cavaliers do indeed get past the Yellow Jackets, their pool would set up quite nicely for them with the exception of Miami.

#8 North Carolina (32-22, 13-16) vs. #9 Virginia Tech (27-26, 13-16) - Tuesday, 3 P.M.

The second play-in game of the ACC tournament will be a rematch of the 2013 ACC Championship game that saw North Carolina take home the trophy with a 4-1 victory over the Hokies.

The Hokies haven't finalized pitching plans as of yet, but are leaning towards starting sophomore lefty Kit Scheetz (3-3, 5.67 ERA) as he is the most rested starter given his brief outing against Pittsburgh on Friday. Sean Keselica (5-4, 3.47 ERA) threw 106 pitches in his start last Thursday, so while he may not be starting, it wouldn't be shocking to see the Hokies ace utilized out of the bullpen in a close game despite being on short rest (for college baseball standards).

As for the Hokies opponent, North Carolina is a supremely talented baseball team, evidenced by the fact that they opened the season as the No. 6 ranked team in the country. Two weeks ago, it seemed implausible that the Tar Heels would be relegated to a Tuesday play-in game that they would need to win just to advance to pool play. But after being swept by both Notre Dame and Virginia to close out their regular season, the Tar Heels path to pool play runs through the Hokies.

Carolina's pitching staff is deep and extremely gifted. The Tar Heels will send sophomore Zac Gallen to the mound on Tuesday, but senior Benton Moss, their most experienced and arguably best pitcher, should be available out of the bullpen after being limited to just 47 pitches on Saturday against Virginia. Gallen (3-3, 2.79 ERA) served as the Friday starter for North Carolina and was dominant when pitching at home, but did give up 4 earned runs in 5 innings in his start at English Field. Moss (7-0, 3.30 ERA) has been a fixture in the Tar Heels rotation over the past four years and has accumulated 26 career wins. Since the Sunday rubber match between the two teams was rained out, Moss hasn't faced Tech this season, but he does have two career victories over the Hokies.

The Tar Heels also have two reliable arms out of the bullpen in Trevor Kelley and Trent Thornton. Kelley, a right handed sidearmer, sports a 2.62 ERA in an absurd 39 appearances, a number so high that it makes you hope North Carolina's clubhouse in Durham is well-stocked with ice. Thornton has regressed this year, but his low-to-mid 90's fastball out of the bullpen is a real weapon for Coach Mike Fox.

Offensively, the Tar Heels are led by Landon Lassiter, Tyler Ramirez, and Skye Bolt. Carolina doesn't have a single regular starter hitting over .300, but Ramirez and Bolt each have nine home runs to their name.

If the Tar Heels late-season offensive struggles continue, the Hokies have a great chance to advance to pool play. But if Zac Gallen pitches to his potential and Carolina gets a few runs off of Scheetz early, the Hokies could be facing a quick exit.

Pool A

If the Hokies beat North Carolina, they'll join what appears to be the tougher of the two pools, Pool A.

#1: Louisville (42-14, 25-5)

Any doubts as to whether Louisville could handle the rigors of an ACC schedule were cast away in their first season in the league as they set a single-season conference wins record with 25 victories. Winners of all 10 of their ACC series this season, the Cardinals are led by an excellent pitching staff that boasts a 2.65 team ERA. Kyle Funkhouser, a sure-fire first round draft pick in next month's MLB Draft, served as Louisville's Friday starter all season and went 7-4 with a 2.99 ERA. Sophomore closer Zack Burdi (5-0, 0.78 ERA, 8 saves) sports a fastball that has been recorded north of 100 mph paired with a devastating breaking ball that has made him one of the most feared pitchers in the country. Offensively, the Cardinals are paced by Corey Ray, Sutton Whiting, Nick Solak, and Brendan McKay (ACC Freshman of the Year). Ever-aggressive on the basepaths, Louisville has stolen 117 bases (3rd in the nation) while only allowing their opponents to swipe 34 bags. The Cardinals are the clear favorite this week in Durham and should be a top-8 national seed in the NCAA Tournament.

#4: Florida State (37-19, 17-13)

In his 36th year at the helm of the Seminoles, the amicable Mike Martin has produced yet another Omaha contender. The Seminoles are led by junior outfielder D.J. Stewart who Pat Mason called "arguably the best player in the country" prior to the Hokies series with Florida State. Stewart has smashed 13 home runs this season and has the third highest OBP (.514) in Division 1. Stewart also leads the nation with 62 walks, a clear indication of the respect that he commands at the plate. On the mound, the Seminoles weekend rotation of Boomer Biegalski, Mike Compton, and Drew Carlton has been solid but not spectacular. If the Seminoles hope to make a run in Durham followed by a potential 16th trip to the College World Series under Martin, they'll do so on the back of D.J. Stewart.

#5:Clemson (31-25, 16-13)

Clemson, another traditional college baseball power, has had an up-and-down season but appears to be peaking at the right time after sweeping Florida State last weekend. Matthew Crownover, the 2015 ACC Pitcher of the Year, continued his dominance over the league this season as he now holds a 15-7 record with a 1.61 ERA in 27 conference starts over the past three years. Other than Crownover and fellow lefty Zach Erwin, the Tigers pitching staff has been inconsistent throughout the year. The Tigers have been carried offensively by Chris Okey (12 HR), Tyler Krieger (.339 BA), and Reed Rohlman (.363 BA, 55 RBI's). If the Tigers are to advance out of Pool A, they'll need to get two quality starts from pitchers not named Matthew Crownover.

Pool B

The winner of #7 Virginia - #10 Georgia Tech will join Pool B.

#2 Miami (42-13, 22-8)

Perhaps the best offensive team in the ACC, Miami will likely be the biggest threat to Louisville's chances of taking home the ACC title. Fresh off an absolutely demolishing of Georgia Tech, the Hurricanes come in to the tournament with plenty of confidence. Second baseman George Iskenderian won the ACC batting title with a .391 BA and third baseman David Thompson leads the nation with 19 home runs. On the bump, the Canes are led by Thomas Woodrey (6-2, 2.69 EAR) and Andrew Suarez (7-1, 1.95 ERA). In his most recent start, Woodrey tossed a complete game 1-hit shutout against Georgia Tech. If I was a betting man, I'd put my money on the Canes this week in Durham.

#3 Notre Dame (35-19, 17-13)

Just a year after limping to a 9-21 conference record and missing out on the ACC tournament, the Fighting Irish were undoubtedly the biggest surprise of the ACC baseball season. Not known for their prowess on the diamond, Notre Dame claimed the #3 seed with consistently solid pitching and just enough hitting. Notre Dame ace Ryan Smoyer enters the tournament with an 8-0 record and a 2.06 ERA in 65 2/3 innings. Since I've seen Notre Dame play exactly zero times this season, I'll mention here that they apparently love to recruit family members of extremely well-known major leaguers. On just a 35 man roster, the Irish have Cavan and Conor Biggio, the sons of Craig Biggio, Torii Hunter Jr., the son of Torii Hunter Sr., and Ryan Lidge, the cousin of former Phillies closer Brad Lidge.

#6 N.C. State (31-20, 15-14)

One year after electing not to start first round pick Carlos Rodon on short rest in the ACC tournament play-in game (which they went on to lose), the Wolfpack narrowly avoided a play-in game this year as they snatched the #6 seed. The Wolfpack have four starters hitting over .300, most notably Logan Ratledge, who currently holds a .335 BA with 8 HR. The Wolfpack enter the tournament with a 2.82 staff ERA and have been carried by freshman Brian Brown (6-3, 1.87 ERA) and sophomore Joe O'Donnell (7-3, 1.94 ERA). After three close games with Louisville this past weekend in Raleigh, the Wolfpack should know that they can compete with anyone in the league.