By the (Advanced) Numbers: Purdue

What can be said about Virginia Tech's upcoming Big Ten matchup at Purdue based on only two games of statistical data? There's not enough information available about the personalities of each team to put meaningful numbers behind them. Also, it's anyone's guess how many snaps each Hokie quarterback will receive, and how they'll be utilized. What we do seem to know is that Purdue is likely improved from last year, and we can't tell whether the offense sans Michael Brewer can be effective against an FBS opponent.

Where the Season Stands

Virginia Tech is currently 1-1. The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:

The odds of each possible regular season win total are now:

Rankings and Computer Predictions

The computer rankings and predictions for each team:

There is no question that statistically Virginia Tech is the better team, and while computers may not be taking into account an injured quarterback, they are also consistent with the betting spread of 6. The odds of a 6-point favorite winning are 67.3%. There is not a large margin of error in this game.

Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:

It is a testament to the strength of Ohio State's offense that Tech's defensive rating remains among the best in the country (S&P+ does not consider FCS games). Saturday's game will begin to provide a better idea of (a) just how elite the defense is and (b) whether the offense can have any effectiveness at all without Brewer. Purdue has a slightly above-average offense that needs to be held to poor yardage totals to confirm what we think of our defense; given their below-average defense, there is no excuse for poor numbers on offense. If the offense can't put up at least an average output, sound the alarm on our odds until Brewer returns.

Who To Watch Out For

Purdue isn't exactly loaded with talent, but even perceived doormats like Virginia and Purdue have a few playmakers on their team:

1. Linebacker Ja'Whaun Bentley leads Purdue in tackles, and has 2.5 tackles for loss
2. Special teams — thus far Purdue has struggled to kickoff, punt, return kicks, return punts, and kick field goals effectively. Can the Hokies capitalize?

Statistical Key to the Game

Let's not overthink this one. Tech's defense should be fine. There's nothing fancy needed from the offense — just be effective enough to come away with more points than the Boilermakers. So yards per play on offense is a critical measurement of that effectiveness, and anything above 5.5 will be a sign that our offense has a pulse.

Statistical Prediction

Based on real time reactions against Furman from Hokie Nation, I seem to be way more pessimistic about Tech's offense — especially whether Scot Loeffler calls plays that work to Motley's (and Lawson's) strengths. But Purdue has a tendency to give up big plays, and I think that Tech will struggle to consistently move the ball, but be saved by a couple of big plays that seal the game. Virginia Tech wins and we all breathe a sigh of relief.

Virginia Tech 20, Purdue 13

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.