By the (Advanced) Numbers: Miami

Will the Virginia Tech team that takes the field against Miami come out dominant, or splash cold water on Hokie Nation's renewed hopes for a winning season?

From the Football Study Hall advanced statistical profile of Virginia Tech, the Hokies have exhibited the following behavior in the first half of the season:

• The offense is among the worst in the country — ranked 114th — in first quarter S&P+, but ranks very well in other quarters: 20th, 37th, and 33rd. It would be great to have the offense come out firing on Saturday. Miami's defense is rated 108th in the first quarter.
• The offense is solo tackled 53.1% of the time, compared to 74% nationally — ranking nearly last in the country. Translation: Hokies are not getting into space when they have the ball.
• This is simply putting numbers behind the obvious, but when Virginia Tech has won this year it has been convincing with the team's performance rating at the 84th, 91st, and 97th percentiles of all college football games this season. None of the losses have broken 50%.

Where the Season Stands

Virginia Tech is currently 3-3. The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:

The convincing win against the Wolfpack, combined with Boston College competing against Wake Forest in a game of futility that any fan base other than the Hokies can rightfully mock, has Virginia Tech now favored in two remaining games. Unfortunately one of those is against the Eagles, in which the historical odds put Tech's chances at 0%. I still see you though UVA.

The odds of each possible regular season win total are now:

via GIPHY

Rankings and Computer Predictions

The computer rankings and predictions for each team:

The outlier on Virginia Tech's rankings is real and comes courtesy of TrueSkill, the second-least accurate rating system to this point according to Massey's Ratings Comparison. According to TrueSkill, the Hokies are the No. 6 team in the country and well, just because a rating system is objective and computer-driven doesn't make it good. The odds of a 6-point underdog winning are: 32.7%.

Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:

These two teams are very evenly-rated, with Miami maintaining a moderate advantage between the offenses and Virginia Tech between the defenses. Each offense is rated higher than the opposing defense.

When Virginia Tech Has the Ball

Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings. All statistics are now opponent-adjusted.

Who has the advantage in the passing and rushing game when the Tech offense has the ball?

The Miami defense has not been particularly effective thus far, and Scot Loeffler should be able to balance the run and pass games as neither will be at a disadvantage.

When Miami Has the Ball

Again, examine pass-run comparisons first:

The ratings don't suggest a gashing on the ground like the Hokies experienced in 2014, but they didn't prior to that game either. Ultimately, the Hurricanes also enjoy advantages in both rushing and passing, and Virginia Tech has been awful defending explosive rushing plays. One strong point is in passing downs — it seems that Miami is less effective relative to Tech's defense when in obvious passing situations.

Who To Watch Out For

Who will fans not need to watch for in 2015? Duke Johnson. There's that. Otherwise:

1. Quarterback Brad Kaaya is confident and protects the ball. He's thrown only one interception this season. The offense relies on his passing game and is not generally run-heavy.
2. All defensive backs, who combine to rank No. 1 in the country in Havoc Rate — an opponent-adjusted statistic that indicates how often they record a turnover or pass breakup.

Statistical Key to the Game

Miami has gained an astounding 10.2 points per game in turnover luck and has a defense that is very aggressive in trying to create turnovers. Otherwise the team is not nearly as dynamic on either side of the ball as one might believe. Even a tie in the turnover battle probably gets Virginia Tech the win, and winning the turnover battles would almost guarantee it. So in my opinion, turnover difference is the key to the game.

Statistical Prediction

Statistically, Virginia Tech is projected to finish with 189 yards passing and 169 yards rushing and Miami is projected 187 yards passing and 185 yards rushing. I expect Kaaya to be held in check and Miami to break a big run or two during the game, but the Hokies to create a big turnover and take the win. After which, all of us to become completely irrational about how good the team is.

Virginia Tech 27, Miami 24

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.