Princeton a Tricky First Test For Buzzketball in NIT

The wait is over and the postseason destiny of the Virginia Tech men's basketball team has been established. The Hokies are a three seed in the NIT, assuring at least one home game and a potentially comfy road to a semi-final appearance in Madison Square Garden.

Everyone's happy, (well, other than the people behind Big Apple Buckets, which I frequented so often over the past two weeks that I should get a royalty check for their spike in page views.) Not only to make the NIT, but to be the highest ranked ACC team in the field? It's more than anyone could have dreamed in January.

But just because Buzz Williams' squad has completed this specific goal doesn't mean the expectations stop. Outside of the finale against Miami in Washington D.C., the group has been on a tear. And at first glance, no opponent in Tech's quadrant looks overwhelming. The top seed is St. Bonaventure, who was upset in the A-10 semifinals by eventual champion Saint Joseph's. BYU is right above the Hokies, and have had a solid but rather uninspiring campaign. It all seems geared for a run out of Blacksburg.

But making any sort of prediction in the NIT is tough. Unlike the usual factors which determine success in the NCAA Tournament, it sees more variance on a given night. A one seed has been upset in the first round five out of the last six years, and the teams who find success aren't necessarily the "best" ones in the bracket.

Former bubble teams who feel disrespected may not feel as urgent as they would on a bigger stage. Remember when John Calipari's Kentucky squad lost to Robert Morris in 2013? It takes a mentally tough team and a positive minded coach to focus on the task at hand. They can't think about the bigger tournament they're missing, and instead rally together each time out.

On paper, it looks like Virginia Tech has both of those keys. Williams has kept his guys prepared at every turn, and they'd show up for him even if this thing was played in Serbia. And since they've been so hot of late, it would feel safe to assume the Hokies want to keep going as long as possible. But as always in single-elimination events, one bad night can be the difference between traveling to MSG and the end of the season.

And though expectations should be high, it's also foolish to put too much stock into their performance. A record above .500, and surprise ACC run is much more foundational to build on than postseason Ws. In fact tourney wins are relatively meaningless, and not indicative of future success at all (only two of the last six teams to win the NIT have gone on to the big dance the following year). A good performance would nice for the Hokies, but it doesn't have any definite bearing on 2016-17.

A look at Princeton

To be honest, I don't take in a ton of Ivy League basketball in my free time. The only time I've watched it in over the last few years was when Tommy Amaker's Harvard Crimson made highly paid coaches poop themselves in the first round. But with Harvard down this year, they watched as Yale and Princeton take off to the top of the standings.

The Bulldogs eventually locked up the automatic bid, forcing the 6-loss Tigers on the outside of the bubble and into a trip to Blacksburg instead. While this website's expertise may not extend to the Ivy, The Key Play's Joey Coogan spoke to Harvard assistant coach Brian Eskildsen, who could give a little insight into the Hokies' opponent.

"They're very difficult to guard because of their style," Eskildsen said. "They have, almost at all times, four if not five three point shooters out on the floor. One of the things with this particular Princeton team is they've got a lot of interchangeable parts."

This could pose a problem for Tech. According to Kenpom, the Tigers score 111.5 points per 100 possessions, 45th best in the country. Buzz and company come off of two consecutive games in which they allowed more than 80 points, daring both Florida State and Miami to shoot semi-open shots from long range. Though it worked wonders against the Seminoles, the Hurricanes cashed in six of nine second half bombs on their way to a win.

This is the biggest concern for the Hokies, who gave up 74 points a contest in ACC play, and it doesn't just impact them defensively. The tempo in which they thrive (especially over the last month) relies on missed shots to turn into transition baskets and fouls. If those opposing jumpers fall, it's not only a hit on the scoreboard, but on Tech's most elite team skill as well.

"(Princeton's) playing extremely well," Eskildsen said. "They're a good team. I know they're a team that can get hot in a hurry. They score the ball so well because they have a lot of shooting. They can kind of snowball for teams. One of the things they were able to do a lot in our league is really right out of the gates just jump on teams early with that shooting. It was hard to overcome if you don't have that kind of firepower offensively."

But luckily for the Hokies, they're not so short on offensive weapons themselves. And with the Tigers' tendency to play small (they often roll out four guys 6'6" and under), it plays right into the strengths of Tech's best lineups.

Since Seth Allen's transition into the first man off the bench, he's averaged 21 points on 47% shooting. It's not by chance that this scoring avalanche coincides with the emergence of Justin Robinson, and the duo's ability to play together. Though it can be a problem against schools with size, the pair of 6'1" guards have made the team look unstoppable for stretches. Throw in their minutes next to fellow point Devin Wilson, and the Hokies have three primary ball handlers who can play together.

It isn't always perfect, especially with Wilson's lack of shooting, Robinson's tendency to compound his mistakes and Allen's penchant for driving blindly into traffic. But the lineup both poses a challenge to opponents who bring ball pressure and a unique way to guard other small teams.

Another way to hurt a team keen on playing multiple backcourt players is by pounding the boards and patrolling inside.

"(Princeton's small-ball) creates a lot of problems for the other team on defense," Eskildsen said. "But then if you can take advantage of it when you're on offense — which is what we did — it can kind of counteract that. That is where against some of the bigger, high-major teams, I could see where teams will try to crash the glass and really try to beat them in the paint."

Do you feel that? Staring at you from a dark practice gym near Cassell Coliseum? It's Zach LeDay and his icy glare ready to take charge. An opponent like the Tigers was meant for the redshirt junior, an undersized forward who eats smaller players alive. Remember those games in November where LeDay looked like the love child of Moses Malone and Charles Barkley? He averaged 19 points and 11 rebounds in the month, primarily against schools too undersized to handle him.

Look for LeDay, Chris Clarke and Kerry Blackshear Jr. to all find success in spurts. And the more they can do close to the hoop, more things will open up on the perimeter.

All in all, this is a nice matchup for the Hokies, who've often struggled with opposing size. But don't start looking ahead to a potential clash with BYU or UAB, because Princeton has all the tools of a team who can blow up grand plans with one hot half.

Williams and his staff will try everything in their bag of tricks to keep the Tigers contained. But will it be enough? Tech fans hope so, because a mid-spring trip to New York City definitely sounds appealing.