Virginia Tech Faces North Carolina in a Measuring Stick Matchup

Hyperbole aside, Virginia Tech's matchup against North Carolina is the biggest road game for Tech since 2011. The Hokies hit their bye week following back-to-back blowout victories over East Carolina and Boston College. Meanwhile, North Carolina had little downtime after two nail-biting victories over a dangerous Pittsburgh squad and blue-chip laden Florida State.

Saturday's game is replete with storylines. North Carolina handed a loss to Frank Beamer in his final home game last season. The Hokies and Justin Fuente face their first true road game of the season. Both teams are putting up blistering offensive numbers. Hurricane Matthew's impact on the south atlantic coast could provide challenging weather conditions.

Perhaps the biggest storyline is how the weaknesses of both teams align. The Tar Heels have one of the worst rushing defenses in the country, while the Hokies run game has sputtered at different points early in the season. The only dent in the Hokies' defensive scheme has been some vulnerability (exploited by Tennessee and East Carolina) against vertical route concepts, and North Carolina's receivers have generated a boatload of big plays running the dreaded "Verts". How each team mitigates the deficiencies in these respective areas will likely decide the football game.

How to Run on the Worst Run Defense in the ACC

Much has been made about North Carolina having the worst rushing defense in the ACC. The Tar Heels have given up 236.8 yards per game on the ground, and 5.02 yards per carry thus far this season.

UNC's early season schedule contributed mightily to those ugly numbers. Few teams have played a rogues gallery of rushing attacks comparable to the Tar Heels' slate. Nick Chubb (222 yards), James Conner (66), and Dalvin Cook (140) represent a murder's row of power rushers that would present huge problems for most defensive coordinators.

Against Pitt, North Carolina actually did a good job of containing Conner on downhill running plays. On this play, Pitt runs a power to the left. The Panthers attempt to block down on DE Mikey Bart (No. 45, SR, 6-3, 270) with the tight end. The fullback kicks out SAM LB Cayson Collins (No. 23, SR, 6-1, 235). Finally, the right guard pulls and leads up on Isaiah Ford's former Trinity Christian Academy teammate, mike linebacker Andre Smith (No. 10, SO, 6-0, 235).

Bart does a solid job of resisting the TE's down block. Smith (who is terrific playing downhill and in pursuit) fills the hole, avoids the block, and drives Conner backwards. Where North Carolina struggles is when teams get on the edge and use misdirection. Pitt had tremendous success using quick jet sweeps. Florida State copied Pitt's strategy. Jet sweeps were a big part of the Seminoles' game plan early, and later FSU found room with outside zones and powers to get on the edge.

North Carolina flips their defensive ends based on the strength of the defense. Bart plays to the running strength of the formation. Bart is a persistent pass rusher who keeps his feet moving and eventually slides off blocks to get coverage sacks. Against the run, he can effectively be blocked even by tight ends that use good technique. Weak-side DE Tyler Powell (No. 95, JR, 6-4, 290) was dominated by both Pitt and Florida State.

North Carolina often crashes their ends inside to eat up blockers with the hopes that Smith, Collins, and the safeties can make the tackle in space. This play perhaps best demonstrates why spilling the football to the safeties has not worked well this season. Pitt runs a jet sweep to the left. Instead of UNC's offensive line zoning to the left, they zone to the right side.

The zone step away from the run completely messes up Smith's key as the middle linebacker. He steps hard to his left to mirror the offensive line even though both running backs and the jet sweep motion is going to his right (our left). Without even being blocked, UNC's best front seven defender is out of the play.

Powell (aligned outside of the left tackle) does a good job of keeping his outside shoulder free. However, when he meets contact from the left tackle, Powell's feet completely die.

To the field, North Carolina's edge players struggle to get off their blocks. The Heels play a ton of off-man and cover 3 with their corners, in other words their corners are either chasing wide receivers or playing very deep. UNC's safeties are asked to come up and make plays. Yet, time and again on film those guys were ate up by blockers. Pitt WR Quadree Henderson is nearly fifteen yards into the secondary before approaching contact.

I expect Tech's run game plan to mirror the one employed against Tennessee. North Carolina has a tendency to over pursue. The combination of misdirection and the ease with which previous opponents effectively sealed the Tar Heel defensive ends inside would suggest the Hokies establish the jet sweep early, and then run some zone counters (much like Travon McMillian's long touchdown against Tennessee) to capitalize on UNC's over-pursuit.

North Carolina's Offense — Push it (Vertically) to the Limit

At first glance, it is difficult to know where to begin with North Carolina's offense. Quarterback Mitch Trubisky (No. 10, JR, 6-3, 220) has thrown 13 touchdowns, completed 76% of his passes for 1,711 yards, and has not thrown an interception. Running backs Elijah Hood (No. 34, JR, 6-0, 220) and T.J. Logan (No. 8, SR, 5-10, 190) are two of the best tailbacks in the ACC. Lengthy wide receivers Mack Hollins (No. 13, SR, 6-4, 210) and Bug Howard (No. 84, SR, 6-5, 210) have a track record of making big catches, including Howard's game winner against Pitt. Austin Proehl (No. 7, JR, 5-10, 175) is a reliable intermediate target. The offensive line is a veteran group that has several years of success. On paper, the only weakness is Larry Fedora's stubborn refusal to establish Hood and Logan in big games.

With all the aforementioned options at their disposal, when the Tar Heels really need to move the football, slot receiver Ryan Switzer (No. 3, SR, 5-10, 185) is the weapon of choice. Through five games in 2016, Switzer has 47 catches for 587 yards and 2 TDs. He has amazing burst and the ability to change directions in a phonebooth. Fedora maximizes Switzer's ability by aligning him in the slot against safeties and linebackers and attacking the defense with vertical route concepts.

On this play, the Tar Heels run vertical routes off play-action. Florida State is in a cover 2 defense.

Both Switzer and Howard are aligned to the field and get vertical. The Seminoles have one deep safety to that side. The safety angles out on Howard. Once Switzer slips behind the zone coverage of the nickel, he bends back to the middle of the field. This creates more distance between Switzer and the safety help. The nickel knows he is in trouble and tries to turn and run with Switzer, and Switzer leaves him in the dust.

Switzer excels at pushing vertical and then breaking routes into open space based on the coverage. He gets so many touches (T-4th nationally with 9.4 receptions per game) that defenses have a tendency to over-focus on Switzer.

On this play, North Carolina is aligned in a trips formation to the field. Switzer breaks his vertical route to the boundary corner route. Watch how Pitt safety Terrish Webb (No. 2) fixates on Switzer and gets spun around.

As the safety drifts towards Switzer, North Carolina attacks the lone remaining corner with a vertical route by Hollins and a freeze route by Howard. When Howard checks up, the corner freezes for a second and then turns to try and run down Hollins. The safety is out of position and Hollins has a ton of inside leverage. An underthrow by Trubisky makes the catch a little dodgier than it needs to be, but this is still a relatively easy touchdown.

North Carolina will work these vertical routes throughout the game. If defenders play looser man coverage, it opens up intermediate crossing routes, slants, and the screen game. If defenders choose to press, Fedora counts on Switzer to beat coverage with his quickness and Howard and Hollins to win jump balls. Fedora will also use formation to get ideal match ups. He will use his alignment to dictate how the Hokies align throughout the day. At some point, he will find an alignment where Switzer is one-on-one with Tremaine Edmunds, Terrell Edmunds, or Andrew Motuapuaka. Those will be nervous moments for Bud Foster and the Hokies defensive staff. Foster will do everything he can to get Mook Reynolds and Chuck Clark covering Switzer. And even those matchups will be tough for the Hokies to win because Switzer is one hell of a player.