Weekly Weather Report Hurricane Matthew

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOH-Wee what a week this has been forecasting, this storm has been all over the place and sure enough the day has finally come for the forecast! I'll also be including some other forecasts that you guys were asking about at the bottom after the go hokies!

Didn't realize how much the models could switch up as a result of a few mountains over cuba/Haiti and as we mentioned from the get-go a lot of the track on this bad boy will have to do with a trough coming across the United States. While the models might not be zeroed in yet completely (intensification can do some weird stuff) they have cleared their biggest hurdle in the mountainous regions in cuba and Haiti (yes that can impact things a lot!)

Leading up to this week we were looking at a storm that could crush the eastern seaboard and I made a statement that depending on what happened with the pace of the storm would really impact the eastern seaboard as far north as New York. Basically what everyone has been looking at and the general disagreement between the models would be what kind of pull a trough coming across the US would have on the storm. Typically these things win out, which is why the pace was so important. This storm has been a VERY slow moving system and I think anyone can attest to that fact. It seems like we've been talking about it for damn near a week and it hasn't even hit Florida yet. If that bad boy had picked up some pace it probably could have wreaked havoc up the coast before the trough came across. Luckily for us it didn't pick up any speed which gave the trough enough time to loop across the US and influence it before it got to far north. I dont have enough time to get through everything I need to so this NWS image will have to due. Note the line that says Rain and Tstorms right around the Washington. That bad boy is going to be the primary driving force in this entire system in the next couple of days and holds a lot of our east coast weather well in its grasp

As a result of this trough showing up its basically taking the momentum and trajectory of the storm and pushing it eastward back out to sea (not as abruptly as initially thought but I'll get into that shortly...) The storm should make its way up the east coast making landfall with the eye hitting right around the coast just east of Orlando (small town of Rockledge if you wanna get really picky) at about a category 4 strength which is very rare for that portion of Florida. Some of you saying it may be deteriorating are right as of now but are not taking into account the very warm water off of the Bahamas, which will further intensify the storm. Despite passing over some pretty rugged regions in the carribean the storm managed to maintain its eyewall (eye of the storm) indicating a very organized and dangerous system. Furthermore its already showing signs of intensification, with the tightening of the eyewall and increased lightning. More worryingly, as I mentioned in the other thread the most dangerous portion of a hurricane is the front right quadrant (basically draw a line through the storm straight up and down and horizontal through the eye, if you're on the upper right quadrant...you're in for a doozy) thus as it moves up the coast most coastal towns will feel the total wrath of a pretty strong hurricane.

Here's some evidence of what the southeastern coast is up against....

Sidenote we also got these magnificent views while it was forming

These are sprites which are basically just lightning strikes going up into the atmosphere from the top of the storm.

As this thing pushes up the coast it will steadily weaken but it should still be taken very seriously, I expect a lot of flooding for most of Florida the entire SC coast and a good chunk of the NC coast.. If you are in these target regions pllllleeeease heade my warning and try to get out of the way if possible, if you go inland up to virginia you may be A-ok. With this most recent model run (fresh off the presses) we have a slight disagreement between the two models. The GFS has the storm moving much slower and plodding up the coast still, much akin to the forecast a lot of you have been throwing around the last day or so (it began late yesterday afternoon). The Euro on the other hand has the storm picking up a little pace while intensifying through Florida. Furthermore the trough wont reach quite as far south so the storm will have a good chance to rip into the Carolinas before being pushed off shore. Judging by the Euro's accuracy throughout this entire ordeal (its been first on a lot of the trends, whether it be the westward track, the trough impacts, the loop-d-loop) it seems like its a bit ahead of the game. While we wont be experiencing super intense hurricane force winds (75 mph gusts or anything) I do think we'll be getting a ton of rain during the game as the left hand quadrants of the storm (the weaker ones) will still get a clean shot to central NC. Expect rain...and lots of it this weekend and a good bit of rain too. That being said there is still some uncertainty with this system, I am by no means saying im 100% positive that this is what will happen, just saying that there is some strong probability this could happen think on odds of 100 I'd say that this would happen on likeeeeeee 60 of them. (note thats where 60% chance of.... in weather forecasts comes from)

So what does this mean for the game? I expect a slopfest on offense, turnovers...lots...which dear god pleaseeeee no more fumbles.

but it could turn into that with the amount of difficulty the storms will force on the passing game. However I am still confident as I expect Bud to more consistently shut down the run than gene chizik and his "bend dont break" defense. Ultimately mother nature is going to make this a really tricky game if this forecast holds up (still one more hurdle in the Bahamas to be overcome) but as of now I'm going with the euro and I will be happy to keep live updates running on this site!

Yes i do realize my forecast differs from the national hurricane center, but I think they will update theirs shortly. Prepare yourselves ladies and gentlemen on the east coast this could get ugly in places

Final predictions for the game

2+" of rain during the game
20 MPH gusts
high - 72
Low - 63
Clouds obviously

GO HOKIES!!!!!!

Everyone else's forecasts:

Orlando - 5" of rain gusts up to 50 MPH

Jacksonville - 6" of rain hurricane force winds

Myrtle Beach - storms going right overhead 9-10" of rain, strong storm surge, lots of wind

OBX - hurricane force winds ~9" of rain mostly saturday night through sunday morning

Williamsburg - grazed maybe more rain just from the front, wont be bad probably 1" of rain saturday night might get some windy conditions though from the storm still but nothing to bad

Northern VA - some rain saturday afternoon from the front/trough passing through

Savannah Hilton Head - 8" + of rain hurricane force winds friday - saturday

Roanoke Rapids - ~4ish inches of rain, and some moderate winds still something to keep an eye on but you should be alright

Hilton Head - hunker down, ~10" of rain, serious storm surge concerns, very dangerous winds...

Norfolk/VA Beach area - ~3" of rain some heavy gusts too topping around 50 Mph