Virginia Tech Football: North Carolina Q&A

Fresh off their stunning 37-35 upset of Florida State, No. 17 North Carolina is set to host No. 25 Virginia Tech on Saturday afternoon in Kenan Stadium. But despite what promises to be a key Coastal Division matchup, all eyes have been glued to the weather forecast this week as Hurricane Matthew bears down on the Eastern seaboard.

For now it appears as if Chapel Hill will be spared from the worst of Matthew, but conditions could still get sloppy in the Tar Heel state. To get some first-hand insight on Carolina before the rain hits, I spoke with Andrew Carter — an absolute must-read for all things UNC — of The News & Observer.

JC: The Tar Heels took down Florida State in spectacular fashion a week ago, drilling a 55-yard field goal as time expired to shock the 'Noles in Tallahassee. Two questions: what were you thinking as the ball left Nick Weiler's right foot, and where does this win rank in terms of significance for the program since Larry Fedora took over in 2012?

AC: I was thinking it looked good. It's difficult to tell from that particular vantage point, high up in the press box, but it certainly looked good off Weiler's foot – that it had the distance. The only question was whether it was on the right line, and when the officials gave the signal the UNC celebration began immediately, with Weiler sprinting down the field doing the tomahawk chop.

The significance of the win will depend in part on what happens with Florida State the rest of the way. If the Seminoles fade and finish with a relatively mediocre record, it takes some of the luster away from what UNC accomplished. Regardless, though, a win at Florida State is a win at Florida State. It'd been five years since an ACC team beat the Seminoles at Doak Campbell.

And it'd been 20 years since UNC won on the road against a team as highly-ranked as Florida State. You can make the argument that it was UNC's most significant win during Fedora's tenure. The one in overtime at Virginia Tech last year, though, is difficult to top because UNC clinched the Coastal Division that day. But this was huge for UNC, too. It had the feel of a program-turning victory.

JC: Junior quarterback Mitch Trubisky has been excellent this fall, erasing any doubts as to whether he could step into the shoes of Marquise Williams. Their skill-sets are clearly different, but how would you assess Trubisky's performance through five weeks?

AC: He has been pretty spectacular since an underwhelming debut in a loss against Georgia. Even in that game, though, Trubisky wasn't necessarily bad. He just didn't come close to playing up to expectations – both his own and those that have surrounded him for so long while he served as Williams' back-up in recent seasons.

For years, UNC fans and those of us who cover the team had heard a lot about Trubisky's arm strength, accuracy and decision-making, and those attributes have been on full display the past several weeks. After that shaky debut, he has been incredibly accurate. And even with that start against Georgia, he's completing 76 percent of his passes and is on pace for 4,100 passing yards.

He has thrown for more than 400 yards in each of the past three weeks, and he completed at least 81.6 percent of his passes in two of those three weeks. The game that didn't happen, against Pitt, he led a crazy final drive in which he completed three consecutive fourth-down passes, including the game-winner to Bug Howard with two seconds left.

So, yes ... Trubisky has been pretty good. You're starting to hear some Heisman buzz about him.

JC: After a breakout sophomore campaign, junior tailback Elijah Hood has started out a touch slower this fall. Is that simply a byproduct of sharing carries with T.J. Logan, or are there concerns about Hood's production (or number of touches) in Chapel Hill?

AC: Larry Fedora said he expects Hood to play on Saturday, but Fedora has been known to equivocate when it comes to injured players and their status. It's a fun wrinkle covering a Fedora-coached team that you can never be too sure whether a guy will really return from an injury or whether he'll still be out. Fedora likes it this way, and players just sort of smile when you ask them about it.

But to answer your question, no, I don't think there are any concerns about Hood's production. He hasn't been as prolific as he was last year, but the offense is different than it was last year, too, with Fedora and the offensive staff placing more trust in Trubisky's passing ability.

That's not to say that Marquise Williams was a poor passer. He wasn't. It's just that they believe that much in Trubisky, and with UNC throwing it as often as it has, that's going to limit Hood's carries (though he has about the same as he did through five games last season).

The real difference for Hood, so far, is that he played a really strong run defense against Pitt. And then played only a half at Florida State before he left the game amid that injury. I think Hood will be fine and, as you mentioned, UNC has received some good work out of T.J. Logan, who is averaging more than 7 yards per carry. At times Logan has been as valuable offensively as anybody.

JC: While the Tar Heels' passing attack has been prolific thus far, the strength of the Hokies' defense lies in the secondary. Do you think Fedora will rely more on the running game against Bud Foster's defense, or will the Heels challenge the Hokies through the air early and often Saturday afternoon? (Follow-up question: how is Ryan Switzer still at North Carolina?)

AC: I don't see UNC changing its pass-first approach all that much on Saturday. Fedora has always been a big believer in doing what you do well and forcing the other team to stop it. Clearly, UNC has been a better passing team than running, and it'd be uncharacteristic of Fedora to emphasize the run more because he's afraid of the Virginia Tech secondary.

That said, I'd expect the passing offense to look different and adjust to the circumstances. UNC, for instance, passed downfield a lot more against Pittsburgh than Florida State, because the Pitt defense allowed those opportunities, putting its cornerbacks – and linebackers, at times – in single-coverage situations that UNC thought it could exploit. Trubisky took advantage.

Florida State made a point of taking away the deep pass. Trubisky still threw for more than 400 yards because the Seminoles often left the middle of the field open. UNC has a lot of options in the passing game. Bug Howard and Mack Hollins can stretch the field vertically. Ryan Switzer, who has caught 30 passes the past two weeks, has been virtually uncoverable out of the slot, where he's often found himself matched up with a linebacker. And then Austin Proehl, who doesn't get a lot of attention, is probably UNC's best route-runner. I'm interested to see how Foster tries to limit UNC's passing game. Outside of the season-opener against Georgia, when Trubisky's nerves got the best of him, no defense has come close to stopping UNC's passing offense.

And yes, Switzer seems like he's been in school for seven years.

JC: Gene Chizik's defense has struggled at times this fall, but they've been just good enough in each of the Heels' two conference wins. Who are the playmakers on Chizik's unit, and how can Carolina begin to see improvement on the defensive side of the ball?

AC: A big problem with the defense is that there haven't been many playmakers, really. Even the guys UNC felt good about entering the season – cornerbacks Des Lawrence and M.J. Stewart, in particular – haven't made all that many plays. The Tar Heels are without an interception, for instance. They've only forced three turnovers, which ranks 120th nationally.

But some guys to know would be Naz Jones, the defensive tackle who is the leader up front. He has been, by far, the best defensive lineman on a line that otherwise has struggled. The linebackers have been hit or miss, but they've been better lately. Andre Smith is probably the best player in that group.

It's not a defense that has a lot of big-name guys. The strength of it was supposed to be the secondary, but it hasn't exactly happened that way. That said, UNC has done some nice things, overall, defensively the past two weeks. It came up with some critical late-game stops against Pitt and then, against Florida State, held the Seminoles to some long early field goal attempts that they missed, which allowed the offense to build that 21-0 lead.

JC: The battle for the ACC Coastal promises to be an intriguing storyline over the next two months. Carolina and Miami are likely the early favorites, but Virginia Tech has impressed under first-year head coach Justin Fuente. How would you handicap the Coastal division race?

AC: After beating Florida State, I think UNC is the favorite. That game looked like a clear loss entering the season, and so winning it gives the Tar Heels a bit of a cushion that seemed unlikely. So right now, UNC is in the driver's seat of this thing. But it can change in a hurry. The Tar Heels could quickly find themselves 2-2 in the Coastal after the next two weeks ... but even if that happens UNC will be the favorites in its four remaining ACC games and have a great chance of finishing 6-2, which might be good enough.

That's why winning at Florida State was so big for these guys. Only one game, but it could have tremendous consequences, ultimately, in the standings. We'll have a lot better idea about this after the next two weeks. UNC is in the midst of its most difficult four-game stretch of the season (Pitt, at Florida State, Virginia Tech, at Miami). The Tar Heels are already 2-0 and if they can go 3-1 they'll have a great shot of repeating in the Coastal – unless Miami just never loses.

JC: Time to put you on the spot: who wins Saturday, and why?

AC: I think UNC gets it done. The Tar Heels have won in uncanny, wild, zany ways the past two weeks, pulling out last-second victories when defeat seemed imminent. You can say two things about that: That UNC was lucky and therefore is not as good as its record. Or that those kind of victories represent the kind of grit -- which is Fedora's buzzword -- a team needs to have a highly successful season.

I tend to think it's more the latter, partly because UNC did the same thing last year at Georgia Tech and then in overtime at Virginia Tech. The way UNC beat Pitt, and Florida State, has the potential to carry this team to big things, just as the victory at Georgia Tech did last year (UNC rallied from a 21-0 deficit that game). There's just a belief these guys have that they win under any circumstances. Unless Virginia Tech is leading by three touchdowns with two minutes remaining on Saturday, I won't believe UNC is out of it.

Beyond that, UNC's passing offense is rolling. As great as Foster is at what he does, I don't see the Tar Heels slowing down much offensively. Virginia Tech's offense will have its way at times against the UNC defense, but at least the Tar Heels know what's coming there – they practice against a similar offense every day. So I see the Tar Heels in another close one.