So many of you may remember that I ran some numbers over the summer to see just how we have done in previous years, and what our offense needed to do to really get us to where we needed to be. The conclusion I came up with at the time was as follows:
If we prop our historical game by game scoring to be about 2 TDs more per game, we'll be right where we need to be. That'll put us breaking that 31 point barrier more times than not, and by doing so, significantly increase our odds of winning any given game, as that historically is the maximum amount of points you'll see our defense give up in a game in any given season. Considering the offense we've seen the last few years, and the playmakers we do have, who knows, 2 TDs per game might be attainable as early as this season.
So... how does this work our on the current season? Well, first of all, if we look strictly at ACC play this year, our defense is faring a little better this year than it has in the recent past, with us giving up an average of 17.8 points per game in conference play, compared to 19.8 in 2015 and 20.5 in 2014. Its the best scoring defense we've had in conference play since 2013, and 2nd best that we've had since our last ACC title. Nothing especially significant here, and much in line with what we've had, but still lagging behind the peak we had back in 2004-2010 when we had a scoring defense that only once allowed more than 16 points per game.
Where you start to see the shift is on offense. In ACC play since we joined the ACC in 2004, we have seen season averages as follows:
- 2004 - 28.75
- 2005 - 32.8
- 2006 - 23.25
- 2007 - 31.87
- 2008 - 18.87
- 2009 - 33.62
- 2010 - 34.75
- 2011 - 27.75
- 2012 - 22.87
- 2013 - 22.37
- 2014 - 19
- 2015 - 22.62
So our best seasons we've ever had in ACC play were 2009 and 2010 when Tyrod was doing Tyrod things, and we were rightfully wrecking the conference, and the average between those two years was 34.18 points per game. Ready for this year's numbers?
- 2016 - 33.33
Yes, that's right, the scoring we have this year on offense is surpassing every year we've ever had in ACC play outside of the two upperclassmen years of Tyrod, the starting QB of the Buffalo Bills. Yeah, its that impressive. And remember earlier when it was said that as long as we got to 31 points we're in a great position to win any given football game? Well, in every game we've played this year, the first team that got to 31 ended up winning the game, outside of Duke, when it ended up being close because we only got to 24. Also worth noting that this average could very likely increase the next 2 ACC games when we play 2 of the worse defenses in the conference in both GT and UVa.
And this is a team being led by a QB who wasn't playing Division 1 football last year, and being coached by an offensive staff loaded with guys new to the program, meaning its completely reasonable to think that our offensive numbers should only increase down the road as the players throughout the program are fully spun up on the Fuente system. And should that happen, you're looking at a program where, under the status quo on defense, we're set for the long haul.
Exciting times for these Hokies. Exciting indeed.
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