By the (Advanced) Numbers: ACC Championship Edition

Let's pretend it's 2013 and you are a recruit in Virginia who wants to play college football in the Commonwealth. You visit Virginia, and the Head Ball Cop tells you about what they are building, and how great the academics (allegedly) are. You visit Virginia Tech and Frank Beamer pitches the Hokies' long history of success, the experience of playing in front of actual fans in Lane Stadium, and how engineers make more money than wine tasters. Advantage Hokies, although a reasonable person can see how someone might mistakenly choose to be a Hoo.

Now imagine the same right now. Both programs are going to sell you about what they are building with new coaches and discuss the same academic components as always. But one team's season just ended after getting embarrassed by the other 52-10, while the other is about to play in the ACC Championship Game and will enter 2017 in a really good position to return. The case for Virginia Tech over Virginia is the strongest it has been in years.

Virginia Tech's matchup with Clemson is another great opportunity for the Hokies. Tech had two opportunities this season to provide they could compete with an elite team. Against Tennessee the Hokies fumbled away a game in which they led in total yards and yards per play, and dominated North Carolina — albeit in a hurricane which according to Tar Heels should be disregarded. Against Clemson, Justin Fuente will have the chance to demonstrate which game is more representative of his ability to coach in big games.

But according to W-L-W-W neither Fuente, Dabo Swinney, or any players on the field will have anything to do with the result.

Where the Season Stands

Virginia Tech is currently 9-3 and in the ACC Championship Game, just like we everyone predicted. Determining the end-of-season odds and win totals is difficult because the final opponent is not yet determined. To take a guess at it, I assumed that if Virginia Tech beats Clemson the bowl will be against a favored team and gave that team a 70% chance of winning. I also assumed that if Virginia Tech loses to Clemson, the bowl opponent is a tossup with a 50% chance of winning. Combining the odds of beating Clemson with these assumptions, an expected scored difference and odds of winning can be estimated for the bowl game.The actual and predicted score difference and odds of winning each game are:

The odds of each possible season win total are now:

Rankings and Computer Predictions

The computer rankings and predictions for each team:

That computer that has Virginia Tech ranked ahead of Clemson is Roundtable and you know it is reliable because it has Oklahoma State at No. 2 and 5 ACC teams in the top 10! On a serious note, that computer is attempting to do what most people seem to think rankings should do, which is make sure that when two teams have played, the team that won is ranked higher than the team that lost as often as possible. So every time someone asks "How come team X is rated behind team Y when they beat them you idiot?!" keep in mind that this system is the kind of results that thinking produces.

The computer predicting a Hokies' win is Catherwood, and I don't know how it works, but it has picked the winner correctly more often than all but three computers on Prediction Tracker. The odds of a 10-point underdog winning are 23.1%.

Next is a look at any overall offensive or defensive advantages:

Other than offense, defense, and overall, the Hokies have the advantage in every one of those ratings.

When Virginia Tech Has the Ball

Here is an explanation of S&P+ ratings, and FEI ratings. All statistics are now opponent-adjusted.

Who has the advantage in the passing and rushing game when the Tech offense has the ball?

It looks like the strategy of digging a hole every set of downs and then digging right back out could hit a wall this week, as the Tech offense's great passing downs rating is exceeded by that of the Tigers' defense.

Offensive and defensive line performance are compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:

Now let's take a look at the FEI personality traits of the Hokies' offense versus the Tigers' defense:

Across the board, Virginia Tech's offense is a decent team, but will be facing a defense that is great to elite.

The Virginia Tech offense is closest in personality to:

1. Nevada
2. Appalachian State
3. Temple

The Clemson defense is closest in personality to:

1. Louisville
2. Troy
3. Iowa

When Clemson Has the Ball

Again, examine pass-run comparisons first:

The Tigers present an excellent passing game and are especially dangerous on standard downs, but face a Hokies' defense that is also elite against the pass, but more effective on passing downs than standard downs.

Offensive and defensive line performance are again compared using Football Outsiders' metrics:

As for personality traits:

Clemson's major flaw on offense has been a propensity to turn the ball over, doing so 23 times this season (107th in the country). Unfortunately, Tech's defense has not been particularly effective at creating turnovers.

The Virginia Tech defense is closest in personality to:

1. Temple
2. Louisville
3. Clemson

The Clemson offense is closest in personality to:

1. Louisville
2. Alabama
3. USC

Special Teams

First we look at the Hokies' kicking units:

Virginia Tech could really use a more effective kick return unit.

When the Tigers kick:

The strong kick return game should be shut down by Joey Slye.

Who To Watch Out For

Clemson is loaded with talent and the marquee names usually don't disappoint:

1. QB Deshaun Watson may have dropped off the Heisman radar this season, but is still a dangerous passer — and runner — and ranks among the ACC's top four in passer rating. Of course his counterpart has a higher QB rating, and by extrapolation if Jerod Evans attempted as many passes would lead him by 270 yards with 8 fewer interceptions and one less touchdown. Also, Evans has already rushed for 269 more yards and scors. But hey, Deshaun will still be one of the best two QBs in the ACC Championship game!
2. WR Mike Williams is the Clemson's leading receiver. He's caught 10 TD's, averages 10 yards per target, and 14.1 yards per catch.
3. KR Artavis Scott is a middle-of-the-pack returner, but who cares since Joey Slye is 5th in the country in average kickoff distance (just .32 yards shy of first) and 3rd in touchback percentage (76.54%).

Statistical Key to the Game

I see two areas of opportunity for the Hokies. The first is to force Clemson into passing downs and not allow them to have third- or fourth-and-short situations that they are likely to convert. Clemson has not been particularly explosive this season, but is very efficient.

The second is to create turnovers — Watson has thrown 14 interceptions already this season, and the Hokies' defense needs to take advantage of any passing mistakes.

The Stats that Define Virginia Tech's Season

Revisiting my column from this summer on the stats that will define the season, here is how the Hokies performed thus far (each listed as VT - Opponent):

I will not value time of possession.

Statistical Prediction

As I stated after the Tennessee game, I think the overwhelming explanation for the score difference was exceptionally bad fumble luck, and could argue the game was almost a toss-up otherwise. Otherwise, the Hokies have certainly played up to the level of their competition and I don't think will be intimidated in any way by Clemson. Further, I think the changes in how the offense ran against Virginia will make the team more difficult to prepare for, and Clemson is much more likely to take the expected outcome for granted.

I see a close game, where Jerod Evans finally gets the national attention he deserves by matching or outplaying Deshaun Watson and frustrating the Tigers' defense. The Hokies pull off the upset and keep the ACC out of the playoffs, while ensuring they start 2017 ranked and with a Heisman-potential quarterback. This Kool Aid is delicious.

Virginia Tech 31, Clemson 30

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.