By the (Advanced) Numbers: William and Mary Preview

Books don't (usually) set spreads on FBS vs. FCS games, and many of the computer rankings out there don't use them for assessing teams...but that doesn't mean we are completely without stats to write about!

Let's first look at how the teams finished last year according to Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR rating system:

While they obviously played a much easier schedule as shown by SoS, William & Mary is no joke. They finished 8th in FCS and on a neutral field would have only been an 11-point underdog to VT.

Of course, there are end of season stats from last year, so let's take a look at the individual leaders from each team and find out who is staying and who is not starting with the QB's:

William & Mary played two SR quarterbacks almost equally last year, and both put up a QB Rating similar to Logan's. That said, those two combined for only 287 pass attempts all season compared to Logan's 403! This is a run-happy team. The QB rating for both W&M QB's exceeded the Tech defense's season average for opposing QB's, but don't forget that's against significantly better competition. Further, both QB's are no longer with the Tribe so unless there is a stud-in-waiting, don't count on much success passing against the Hokies.

Next we'll look at the RB situation:

We all know that VT needs to get it's running game going again this season, and hopefully we don't have to wait. Against admittedly easier competition, the Tribe only gave up 3.3 yards per carry. That is elite run defense, and we better hope that we either have a big improvement in the run game or our QB situation was undecided so long because both looked incredible (note: our QB situation wasn't undecided because both were looking incredible). We could really struggle on offense in this one. Further, William & Mary returns all three backs including Mikal Abdul-Saboor and his impressive 4.7 YPC average (far exceeding VT's 3.21 YPC from last year).

Finally, let's look at receivers (which would include TE stats if any were among leaders but they're not):

All leading receivers return from both teams although it is likely the Hokies will have to rely on theirs more given the Tribe's paltry 9.3 yards per reception average given up to opposing teams.

Now some random odds and ends:

• The AJ Hughes stat of the week: In 2013 AJ averaged 5 more yards per punt than Tribe punter John Carpenter. This year's William & Mary punter? Hunter Windmuller, last year's backup to AJ Hughes.
• William & Mary is a disciplined team, only giving up 32.2 yards per game in penalties last year.
• The Tribe scored a very good 87% of the time when they entered the red zone, but often settled for field goals as their red zone touchdown percentage of 53% is very low relative to other teams.

There is a standard underdog strategy in football that goes like this: Drain clock by relying on the run; play disciplined football; and hope for a little luck. Unfortunately William & Mary is a team built to rely on the run and play disciplined football, and they are unlikely to give up a bunch of points to Virginia Tech. This is not going to be a blowout win against a weak FCS opponent, and Virginia Tech will need to also be very disciplined and establish something on offense early—otherwise Tech is some bad luck away from an embarrassing defeat.

Statistics are courtesy of Jeff Sagarin at http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm, William & Mary athletics at http://www.tribeathletics.com/SportSelect.dbml?SPID=80810, and www.cfbstats.com.