By the (Advanced) Numbers: Ohio State

When it's this early in the season, numbers aren't particularly accurate, but can still tell a partial story, especially about the personality of a team. Also, we can use some statistics and information from last season to aid the analysis.

This is the computer ranking:

This is where those computers predict the result, and what Vegas thinks:

So Vegas has us at about an 11-point underdog, with most computers thinking that should be a little higher. The odds of an 11-point underdog pulling the upset are 21.6%.

What would it take for Tech to do that? Let's first look at any offensive or defensive advantages.

For an 11-point spread, the teams are remarkably close. The Buckeyes playing at home is weighing heavy on that line. Ohio State has won 35 consecutive home openers, is 74-7 overall at Ohio Stadium since the start of the 2002 season, and has won 64 consecutive regular-season home games against unranked, non-conference opponents.

Something's Gotta Give

Let's take a look at a few areas where Virginia Tech and Ohio State showed substantial differences in 2013.

• Ohio State was tied for 1st in the country with 147 rushes of 10+ yards in 2013; Virginia Tech gave up only 51 such runs (T-20th)
• Ohio State had the 2nd-fewest punts returned last year with only 7; VT returned the most with 44 (2nd-most only returned 36)

It will be interesting to see whether the Hokies can limit big rushing plays by Ohio State as well as whether VT chooses to return many punts in the game.

Individual Standouts

• In Week One, Shai McKenzie averaged an absurd 11.78 yards per carry
• Buckeyes WR Devin Smith, who caught 2 passes for 94 yards last week, averaged 15 yards per catch in 2013

Things are going wrong for Tech if...

1. Ohio State avoids passing situations (2nd and 8+, or 3rd and 5+). In 2013 they had the No. 1 standard down offense but the No. 18 passing down offense.
2. VT is losing the field position battle. Despite an elite defense, the Hokies were 58th in the country in number of points given up relative to expectation based on field position.
3. The Buckeyes are winning the turnover battle. The Hokies bested the Buckeyes in 2013 with a +.54 turnover/game margin compared to their +0.36. Given the balance otherwise, this is a likely tipping point.

Things are going well for Tech if...

1. VT establishes a running game more effectively than Ohio State. Tech had the 5th-best rush defense last year compared to their 58th and will need to take advantage.
2. The Hokies get some TFL's. Ohio State only gave up 4 per game last year (6th nationally) while the Hokies got 7 per game.
3. Virginia Tech is scoring more points than Ohio State.

For more statistical details on Ohio State, read Football Study Hall's preview.

As always a thanks to Football Outsiders, cfbstats.com, and Minitab Statistical Software.