Hokie Hoops Statistical Notes: Volume IV

The Men's Team

Good teams beat up on bad teams.

That's what the Virginia Tech Men's team did over the last four games, scoring in the 70s in every game, holding the opposition, usually, in the 50s.

As a result, the Hokies are 9-3 (1-0) on the year and in position for the meat of the ACC conference schedule.

The 2023-24 CMYBall squad is the textbook definition of a bubble team. Lunardi has them as the last team in, in a play-in game. (IF that came true, a win would have us advance to play some guy named Brent)

Scoring

Lynn Kidd led all scorers, averaging 20.3 points over the recent frame. I don't know the last time a Hokie men's basketball player averaged 20 points since I started writing these posts. Boy, did we need those points, as only Cattoor (12.5) and Collins (10.7) averaged double figures. I am particularly happy to see Collins come along, having scored 24 points over the previous 8 games, dropping 32 in the 3 games he played in this window.

Nickel was the next best scorer (8.3), followed by Pedulla (7.5), Poteat (5.5), Beran (5.3), Long (3.5), Rechsteiner (3.0), Wessler (2.3), Young (1.5), and Camden (1.0)

Rounding out the non-conference+Louisville schedule, the Hokies put up 1 x 30-point game, 4 x 20-point games, and 31 x double-figure games. Lynn Kidd has also put together 4 double-doubles.

Rebounding

Kidd also led the team in rebounding at 8 boards per game, followed by Long (6.3), Beran (4.8), Poteat (2.8), Pedulla (2.7), Cattoor (2.5), and Wessler (2.0) in pulling down at least 1 board per half. Among those who grabbed at least 1 per game were Nickel (1.5), Camden (1.3), and Young (1.0). Rechsteiner (0.8) and Venable (0.3) recorded the remaining rebounds over the window.

20 and 8 is great for Kidd. That is a quality ACC Big statline. Our biggest problem is that he's basically it as our lone quality productive big.

Assists

As a team, the Hokies recorded 70 assists to 34 turnovers. Adjusted with steals, and the Hokies put together a very good 70:15 AATO margin. When you don't turn the ball over and you average almost 18 assists per game, you will win.

Experience/Depth

All 14 Hokies played over the window, giving everybody quality breathers before the heart of conference play. Only Cattoor averaged 30 minutes. There were 6 Hokies who averaged 20-29.8 minutes, led by Nickel (27.8), Kidd (23.8), Rechsteiner (21.5), Collins (21.3), Pedulla (21), and Long (20.8). Two more Hokies contributed double digit minutes per game (Beran, 15; Poteat, 12) 9 players getting at least 5 minutes per half is showing us a depth the Hokies haven't had in a long time. Young (9.5), Camden (7.7), and Wessler (5) also provided solid minutes, while Ward (1) and Venable (0.5) had the remainder of the minutes.

Next Window

First up is a road trip to Winston-Salem. The 8-3 Demon Deacons are the only ACC team to not have a conference game up to this point. This is a team that does score, with 4 players averaging between 15 and 18 points per game. However, they are not deep, as only 7 players have played all 11 games, 3 of whom are 6-8 or taller. The Hokies may have trouble, down low, on that front. The four guards who have played are all a little on the short side, but all shoot well from range. The ATO margin isn't that good at 12.4:10.6, they are as active on defense as the Hokies, and record more blocks. This could be a shootout.

Starting 2024, the Hokies travel down to the capital of the Sunshine State to take on the struggling Seminoles. At 6-5, Florida State has 9 players who have played at least 10 minutes per team game, same as the Hokies. They have similar scoring, rebounding, and 3pt%, have a decided advantage in steals and blocks, but commit more turnovers, dish out fewer assists, and don't shoot well from the line (294th in the country) despite getting there quite often (52nd in attempts per game). They've attempted 14 fewer FT than the Hokies, but the Hokies have 43 more FTM.

Coming back to the Cassell, the Hokies welcome, arguably, the best team in the ACC in Clemson. At 10-1, the lone loss coming by 2 points at Memphis, the Tigers are a dangerous scoring team led by....how TF is PJ Hall and Joe Girard III still there? In fact, 7 of Clemson's players are listed as SR by the four letter. Expect to see a depth of around 7, as that is how many have accrued at least 10 minutes per team game. Four of those players are 6-7 or taller. As a team, they score, rebound, assist, block, shoot, and range shoot better than the Hokies, while the Hokies have the advantage in steals and FT%. For the Hokies to win, they are going to have to get those 4 bigs in foul trouble early, as those 4 account for over half of Clemson's total scoring output on the season. On the defensive end, the Hokies may need to utilize a few players who have fouls to give to get the poorer FT shooters on the line.

Miami rounds out this edition, sitting at 9-2 on the season. They come in as the ACC's best scoring offense at almost 84 ppg, but at 71.1 ppgA, they are one of the worst scoring defenses in the conference. They will pound the ball down low and shoot well from range and from the line. They get more steals and blocks, but they do turn the ball over slightly more than the Hokies.

Prediction

I don't know if a less optimistic four game window exists. Wake could be a shootout, at which point, it's anybody's game. Virginia Tech hasn't won back to back games in Tallahassee since the Reagan Administration, and Clemson and Miami are coming to Blacksburg, but how rocking will the Cassell be while students are still on break?

I said earlier, good teams beat up on bad teams.

Give me 2-2 with the Hokies winning both games on the road.

The Women's Team.

Speaking of good teams, great teams obliterate bad teams, and that is what happened as Coach Brooks' squad ran through the last window by a combined score of 343-192. We could have spotted every team we played 24 points and still won every game.

Scoring

Can you feel the love tonight?

Well these Hokies are certainly sharing the love as five of them averaged double figures over this frame, led by Liz Kitley's 16.8 ppg, followed by Amoore's 13.8, Ekh's 13.3, King's 10.5, and Baker's 10.

Adding a bucket per half were Strack (6.8ppg), Summiel (5.8), and Wenzel (5.3).

Micheaux was the only other player to average a basket per game at 3 ppg. Suffren provided 1 point per game played.

Through the eleven game non-conference schedule, the Hokies recorded 3 x 30-point games, 6 x 20-point games, and 28 x double-figure scoring games. Kitley has recorded 8 double-doubles, Amoore has 2, and Summiel has 1, so on average, a Hokie has recorded a double double in every game this season.

Rebounding

Kitley, again, leads all rebounders with 12, meaning she is still averaging a double-double on the season.

Summiel is back at the #2 spot with 8.3 per, while Fr Clara Strack is coming along very well at 6.3 per. Pulling down at least one per half are Amoore (3.3), Ekh/King (2.8), Micheaux (2.5), Baker/Wenzel (2.3).

Suffren swiped the last 1.3 per game.

Assists

Are my eyes playing tricks on me or do I see 83 assists to 42 turnovers?

Those numbers, all season long, would have the Hokies #1 in the nation in ATO margin. As it stands, they are #17.

17 steals brings the AATO margin to 83:25

Experience/Depth

I would argue that we have a full 10 player rotation, as every player has provided an average of at least 1 minute per quarter.

Amoore and King were the only players to contribute at least 30 minutes per game (30.8, 30.3, respectively), while Kitley (29.3) and Ekh (23.8) were the only others to average the majority of the game.

Five more Hokies (Summiel, Wenzel, Baker, Strack, and Micheaux) averaged at least 5 minutes per half (18.5, 18.0, 16.3, 15.8, and 12.8, respectively)

Suffren also managed 6.3 minutes per game, rounding out the 800 total minutes.

Next Window

Pitt comes to Blacksburg at 6-7 on the season, averaging 12 points per game fewer than the Hokies, rebounding less, assisting less, stealing more, blocking less, and shooting worse everywhere on the court. They have 1 major scoring threat in 6-0 F Liatu King who is 4 points and 1 rebound shy of averaging 20 and 10. She does this without having taken a shot from beyond the arc. They do have 1 good range threat in Aislin Malcolm, but their volume shooter is Bella Perkins, though she's not making many. Kitley, Strack, Summiel, Micheaux, and Baker have the height to dominate in the paint against this shallow 8 player roster. In fact, Amoore, by 1 inch, is the only Hokie who isn't at least as tall as their Panther counterpart. Pitt also turns the ball over a lot.

The lone roadtrip heads down to Wake to take on a struggling 4-8 Demon Deacons, with the nation's 275th ranked offense and 155th ranked defense. They have a net margin of -3.8 ppg (245th), while the Hokies are 18th in the nation at +24.1. They are 310th in rebounding, as evidenced by their 1 forward, are -3.3 in ATO margin, and can't shoot from anywhere. They do get steals though. This is a guard heavy lineup, so I would almost expect Kitley and Strack to rotate a bunch, with Micheaux possibly getting a few minutes at the 5, especially if the Hokies can get Cowles into foul trouble, as the only other player taller than 6-1 has played a total of 13 minutes.

Coming back home, the Hokies welcome their 3rd top 10 opponent of the season, in the form of the undefeated NC State Wolfpack. This is going to be a fight, as both teams are evenly matched in scoring offense, FG%, and 3pt%. NC State has the advantage in scoring defense, rebounding and steals, while the Hokies have the advantage in ATO margin, blocks, and FT%. This is a team that matches the Hokies in height with a 6-5 Center (and another 6-5 backup Center named Lizzy). The Pack also play two other 6-3 bigs and a 6-2 guard. Win or lose, this should be a damn good game.

Rounding out the article, the Hokies finish with an unconscionably unranked 10-1 Miami Hurricanes, who will be coming out 10 deep. While the Hokies are the better scoring, rebounding, ATO, Blocking, and FT shooting team, Miami has the more aggressive defense, averaging 10.6 steals per game and lead the ACC in scoring defense at just 53.3 ppgA. Again, the Hokies will not have a height advantage in the post, as Miami has 3 x 6-4 or taller bigs, though they play a combined 44.3 minutes. However, that's it on their height. The Hokies will have the height advantage on the perimeter and at the point. I'd put King on Roberts, to neutralize their top scorer, Amoore on Day-Wilson, Ekh on Patrick, and Wenzel on Williams/Dwyer/Hylton if we go 4-guard. They are weak on the post, as they've pulled down 14.6 total rebounds per game from their post players. The Hokies' 3 bigs are pulling down 19.2.

Prediction

The first two games should be blowout wins for the Hokies, which will hopefully continue to give the starters a rest for the fights they will encounter in the back half of this window.

I think the Hokies will defeat Miami, probably in the range of 8-14 points.

NC State may come down to whoever has the last shot. It is a home game, and I expect the Hokies to be well rested, while NC State will have gone up against two relatively good teams in UVA and FSU, whereas the Hokies will be coming in having played the two worst teams in the ACC. Looking at some advanced stats, I see NC State is 105th in 3pt% defense. The Hokies are also 0.3 points better in Scoring Margin. Hokies by 1, 69-68.

4-0