Slow Starts and Adjustments: Offensive Analytics @ Vandy

Virginia Tech entered the season as a sleeper playoff contender but showed up to the locker room in Nashville still asleep at halftime. The overtime loss to Vanderbilt to open the 2024 season was unfortunately emblematic of the Brent Pry era. Regardless of the offseason praise heading into this season, the Hokies under Pry are not known for their early season success – especially against major competition on the road.

The Hokies are 3-5 in OOC play under Pry, with wins against FCS Wofford, Liberty, and Old Dominion. Those wins were hardly impressive, as we allowed the first points of the season to Wofford (who was shut out by Chattanooga and Elon), a nail biter 23-22 win at Liberty (in a game where Hugh Freeze had all but accepted the job at Auburn), and an uneven 36-17 win to open the season against Old Dominion last year. The losses aren't much better, falling to bad major conference schools (Purdue at home, Rutgers on the road), and two away Sun Belt losses. Furthermore, Pry only has two road wins against major conference opponents, beating Boston College and UVA last season. Again, not particularly impressive.

But things were going to be different this year! The offense evolved after Drones took over. We became a team that could win on the ground and through the air! We brought in help on the defensive line and at linebacker!
Alas, a new season but the same old story as Virginia Tech faces an early hole once again in 2024.

Unprepared starts a problem

Unsurprisingly given the stats above, the Hokies have a problem in one score games under Coach Pry. The Hokies are now 1-8 in one score games, the only win against Liberty in 2022. A common theme is a team that is incapable of playing complementary football for multiple quarters at a time. Whether it is being held scoreless in three quarters against Purdue, blowing an 11 point fourth quarter lead against Georgia Tech, or throwing four interceptions in the first game in his tenure, Pry's teams are allergic to stringing together quarters of just average football. Vanderbilt was no different this year.

In terms of EPA per quarter, Virginia Tech and Vanderbilt appeared relatively even throughout the first quarter. However, Vanderbilt scored on the first play of the second quarter to take a 10-0 lead before ultimately taking a 17-3 at the half. Virginia Tech made some halftime adjustments and actually came out ahead significantly in EPA in the third quarter, and slightly ahead in the shootout fourth quarter before a disappointingly quick overtime loss.
It is hard to come out the gate this slowly when you have a whole offseason to prepare. While it is true that Vanderbilt changed significantly by bringing in much of the talent from New Mexico State, it was still shocking to hear Coach Pry in a sideline interview after the first quarter lament their inability to adjust to looks they were unprepared for.

Short term adjustments belie play calling decision making issues

Despite the start, and the general unpreparedness, the Hokies did adjust in the second half. After gaining about 100 yards on 30 plays in the first half, Virginia Tech opened up the offense gaining nearly 300 yards in the second half. Virginia Tech was able to accomplish this through big chunk plays through the air. Using statistics compiled by the College Football Data API (which uses ESPN box scores, and aggregation is not always perfect), Virginia Tech went from averaging nearly 3.3 yards per play in the first half, to almost 10.1 yards per play in the second half.
In the first half, Virginia Tech had a single explosive play (runs over 15 yards or passes over 20 yards) in the first half: a 24 yard pass to Jaylin Lane during the field goal drive. In the second half, Virginia Tech had 8 explosive plays (7 passes, and 1 rushing play; a 24 yard touchdown run by Bayshul Tuten).

The problem was that Virginia Tech found almost no success moving the ball outside of chunk plays. The 8 second half explosive plays accounted for 264 yards of offense, while the remaining 23 plays accounted for only 49 yards (an average of 2.1 yards per play). Even though Virginia Tech found success often throwing the ball downfield, too often they found themselves trying to recommit to the first half game plan (bubble and tunnel screens, primary targets in the flat, a predictable running scheme), that went nowhere.

More experienced (literally anyone other than me), will point out that you still need to mix in concepts, even when they aren't working, to keep the defense honest and that is true. But Virginia Tech felt like it was all or nothing in terms of play calling. One drive we'd see the Hokies move the pocket, run play action fakes off the toss play, open up crosser routes, etc. The next looked like the worst excesses of the Brad Cornelsen regime: bubble screen, outside zone for no gain, QB draw/power, punt.

When it worked last season, the offense functioned a lot more like the Vanderbilt offense, which traded big plays for methodical, clock churning drives. A play is considered successful if it gains the following:

• 1st down: 50% yards to gain
• 2nd down: 70% yards to gain
• 3rd down: 100% yards to gain
• 4th down: 100% yards to gain

Vanderbilt picked up 12 successful passing plays on 18 called passes (66.67% of called passes) and 75% of passing attempts (removing sacks from the total), which meant that every completion was a successful attempt. Of their completions, 75% (8 of 12) went for first downs or scoring plays.

Virginia Tech was anything but passing the ball, outside of the explosive plays. Virginia Tech was successful on 17 of 38 passing plays (44.7%) and on 50% of passing attempts adjusted for sacks. Kyron Drones completed 7 passes (out of 22) that went for five yards or less.

On the ground, Vanderbilt was not successful overall (18 of 46 rushes, or 39.1%) but they averaged about 4 yards per carry (adjusted for sacks) and had 18 rushes for two or fewer yards. Comparatively, Virginia Tech was slightly worse in terms of success rate (38.5% on 10 or 26 rushing plays) for about 3.8 yards per carry (adjusted for sacks). However, 11 of Virginia Tech's 26 designed run calls went for 2 yards or fewer.

Too Sad; Didn't Read:

Virginia Tech has a long way to go to become competitive in on-the-road, out-of-conference football and Saturday's game at Vanderbilt was a step back for expectations. But Virginia Tech did manage to make adjustments in the second half that led to a brief lead and some explosive plays throwing the ball downfield. In order to win games, Virginia Tech needs to come out quicker and more prepared, and not be afraid to stick with what is working on offense. The Hokies proved they could win over the top, yet still continued to play into Vanderbilt's strengths on the edge and moving downhill on screens. The strength of this team when it succeeded last season was not some sophisticated pro-style offense, but one that used the mobility and arm talent of the QB on the move in conjunction with smart routes and play fakes to get the defense moving horizontally not vertically.