What the Second Half Offense Against Marshall Tells Us About ODU

The Hokies head to Norfolk for a matchup that historically, on paper, should always have been an easy win. However, reality has been anything but. In 2018, Virginia Tech traveled to Old Dominion as a four touchdown favorite, hot off a big wins at Florida State and FCS William & Mary. Disaster struck leaving the Hokies without their starting Quarterback Josh Jackson, and star Defensive End Trevon Hill following a 49-35 loss to backup QB (and future seminary student) Blake LaRussa. Then again in 2022, the first game under new head coach Brent Pry, the Hokies (only six point favorites) traveled to Norfolk for their second road loss of the series. A calamity of errors (5 turnovers, including a special teams touchdown), coaches getting stuck in the elevators, and a locker room robbery have left us a series where no team has won on the road. Brent Pry looks to fix that tonight as the Hokies, once again double digit favorites, take on Old Dominion at S.B. Ballard Stadium in Norfolk, Virginia.

**Note: the ESPN box score to the Marshall game ends at 8:50 in the fourth quarter with the Hokies making a fourth down stop at the 5 yard line. It is missing two drives of mostly end-of-game running situations, which has an impact on the stats below.

An Offense Taking Form (After Halftime Adjustments)

In Week 1 against Vanderbilt, the Hokies first half offense was bad but not egregiously so. EPA was -0.992 in the first quarter and 3.66 in the second, which is middling at best, but not terrible considering the first drive interception. It came out around the middle of power conference teams, even if by the eye test it looked unlike anything Virginia Tech was capable of to end 2023. Halftime adjustments lead to a scoring explosion, extremely reliant on explosive plays but struggling to create sustained offense.

Had Virginia Tech had that level of success against Marshall (however middling it was) we're looking at a team that had covered the -20.5 point spread. Virginia Tech's first quarter EPA/play was -0.442, second to last among major conference teams, beating only Colorado. For the entire first half, their EPA/play was -0.166, 5th worst among major conference teams. Virginia Tech only had a single explosive play (passes more than 20 yards, or rushes more than 15 yards), a run by Tuten for 19 yards.

The Hokies once again found their stride in the second half, with an EPA/play of 0.579, which was 8th best among major conference schools (which is pretty solid considering 2 of the top 3, Florida and West Virginia played FCS Samford and Albany respectively). The Hokies did so on the back of a strong running game, and an efficient passing offense. Virginia Tech's success rate (a metric that looks at yards gained as a percentage of down and distance), was about 42% for the game, a slightly below average rate for major conference teams. But in the second half, VT was 4-4 passing the ball, all successful plays, including two explosives.

Looking Forward to ODU

Virginia Tech faces an Old Dominion team that hasn't done much on offense, even though that hasn't stopped them in the past. Currently 0-2, with close losses to South Carolina and East Carolina, ODU has an offensive success rate of 37%, that struggles in all situations. They were 91st in EPA per play last week, against what has been a stingy ECU defense to start the year.

Old Dominion's highest graded rusher is QB Grant Wilson, who is apparently injured and potentially questionable to play (though ODU Ricky Rahne has not made any comments on the subject to my knowledge). None of the other players grade out with an EPA above 0 rushing the ball (former Hokie RB Bryce Duke is nearest at -0.006 EPA/rush, on only 11 carries). Their passing offense is merely average, though it struggles in passing downs (0.159/EPA per pass, but 24% success rate on passing downs) and has allowed the second most sacks through 2 games (9, for 64 sack yards).

Keys to the Game

Virginia Tech needs to leave the slow starts behind them and impose their rushing offense early. Old Dominion is tied for 11 in turnovers generated this season – forcing ECU QB Jake Garcia to throw 4 interceptions in ODU's loss last week. While they have the ability to create pressure, Virginia Tech will need to use their size and skill to overcome an intriguing defense. Despite the turnovers passing, ECU was able to find some success in the air, completing 5 explosive passes and having higher early down success passing the ball. If Virginia Tech can get Old Dominion off balance early on the ground, they should be able to have an efficient day passing, more inline with the box scores Virginia Tech saw later in the season under the Drones offense.