Hokies Post Another Strong Win and A Look Ahead at Advanced Metrics

And Escape their Second Worst Quarter in the Process

If there has been one trait that has defined the Hokies since 2018, it is that usually anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Whether it is Brent Pry going 1-10 in one score games, or late era Fuente blowing it to Notre Dame and Syracuse on his way to getting fired, we are certainly well acquainted with a late loss.

Depending on your relationship with this particular team, giving up 21 straight in the third quarter certainly felt like the death knell of a once great program who used to dominate on Thursday nights under the lights. And while that was the second worst quarter by net EPA per play (-.876 EPA per play, trailing only the first quarter of the Miami game at -.910), the Hokies didn't fold. Jaden Keller made what was likely the highlight of his early career with an early fourth quarter stop against Boston College power back Kye Robichaux, and the Hokies pulled away for a 42-21 win.

What Do The Advanced Metrics Say?

Outside of about six minutes of the worst, most unlucky period of Virginia Tech football in recent memory this was by far one of the best games Virginia Tech has played under Brent Pry. Second only to the Stanford game, and narrowly edging out Marshall, this was an almost complete performance. The Hokies finished 12th in net EPA per play out of all Week 8 games, and 7th among power conference teams. They finished in the top ten of the following offensive categories:

• Success rate: 9th overall, 53.4%
• Explosive rate: 3rd overall, 15.5%
• Passing success rate: 7th overall, 63.2%
• Rushing explosive rate: 3rd overall, 17.9%

Even the other categories, passing explosiveness (46th, 10.5%) and rushing success rate (25th, 48.7%) finished in the top 50 of what was a stunning performance. The Hokies were an Ali Jennings drop, and a couple of turnovers away from what could have been a record-setting team performance. Instead, we'll have to settle for watching merely the best single game rushing effort from Bhayshul Tuten, who finished with 266 yards on 18 carries, including touchdowns of 83 and 61 yards. The one-time BC transfer commit Tuten, exploited some massive holes created by this young Virginia Tech offensive line, and outside of a single fumble looked utterly unstoppable.

The defense held their own, in a truly "bend but don't break" fashion that isn't going to light up the advanced box scores. The Hokies finished 65th in defensive success rate and 81st in defensive explosive rate. Virginia Tech allowed four receivers to have catches over 20 yards, allowed a 30 yard rush to BC running back Turbo Richards, and allowed one explosive scramble to BC quarterback Thomas Castellanos. Castellanos had his best rushing performance since BC's week one win against Boston College, and an efficient passing game at 17/26 for 205 yards and 2 touchdowns. And while he didn't throw the ugly interceptions like last season, Castellanos did fumble three times, losing two including another stop with the VT defensive 6 yard line.

Where Do The Hokies Rank Now?

Following the victory against Boston College, the Hokies have moved up to 41st overall in net unadjusted EPA/play, up from 54th after week 6.

On offense, the Hokies remain an explosive but not consistent unit but have improved significantly over the past game.

• Overall success rate: up to 42.6% from 41.0% (82nd overall, up from 91st)
• Overall explosive rate: up to 11.5% from 10.9% (7th overall, up from 18th)
• Passing success rate: up to 41.4% from 38.9% (79th overall, up from 105th)
• Passing explosive rate: down to 12.4% from 12.6% (26th overall, down from 25th)
• Rushing success rate: up to 43.5% from 42.6% (75th overall, up from 80th)
• Rushing explosive rate: up to 10.9% from 9.6% (4th overall, up from 25th)

On defense, the unit continues to be around average for the season, ranking 73rd in defensive success rate and 72nd defensive explosive rate. However, the unit maintains a much stronger ranking in defensive EPA/play, likely due to the amount of sacks and turnovers generated.

What Does The Remaining Schedule Look Like?

Reminder, Virginia Tech ranks 34th overall in net unadjusted EPA/play, ranking 41st overall in both offense and defense.

• Georgia Tech: 38th overall in net unadjusted EPA/play (27th on offense, 67th on defense)
• @ Syracuse: 66th overall in net unadjusted EPA/play (40th on offense, 103rd on defense)
• Clemson: 21st overall in net unadjusted EPA/play (10th on offense, 75th on defense)
• @ Duke: 58th overall in net unadjusted EPA/play (122nd on offense, 9th on defense)
• Virginia: 88th overall in net unadjusted EPA/play (65th on offense, 111th on defense)

The Hokies should be favored in most games moving forward, with the exception currently being Clemson. So far, Virginia Tech has opened as -8 home favorites against Georgia Tech according to Circa Sports.