Virginia Tech's Top 10 Plays of the Last Ten Years: No. 10

As a TKP reader, and therefore Virginia Tech Hokies fanatic, EVERY play of every game has you captivated and your emotional state hangs on every pass, every tackle, every penalty, every little detail of every game. But of course not all plays are as big as others and as your memory of the mundane fades you're left with last memories of the truly game-changing plays of every season. Here we use analytics to count down the biggest, most game-changing plays in the past 10 years of Virginia Tech football...

In each installment of this series I'll bring you two plays: one play devastating to the Hokies' chance to win, and one dominating play in Virginia Tech's favor. They will count down in order of how much each play affected the odds of Tech's victory.

The Method

You should know by now that I wouldn't just come up with some subjective opinion list straight out of Buzzfeed. To add validity, and remove maroon and orange blinders, I'll take play-by-play data covering the past decade of Hokie football, and utilize a model developed by Matt Mills of Football Study Hall (he's a Bee but helped out here so let's forgive him) to calculate the odds of Virginia Tech ultimately winning at every point in the game. When you're 9-0 every play feels more important than when you're 5-4, but statistically speaking that doesn't make it so. From that, the odds of winning before each play, as well as after, are known and I can calculate how much any single play increased Virginia Tech's odds of winning.

This list counts down the plays that made a bigger impact on the odds of Hokie victory than any other of the past 10 years.

The fine print: I really, really wanted to modify the data to "correct" a certain call made in the 2011 Sugar Bowl. But ultimately I realized that such a list cannot include overtime, where both teams start with about a 50% chance of winning and in just a few plays win or lose. Those plays carry too much value given overtime rules and including them as "game-changing" would be pretty obvious and would overwhelm the list. So no Catch, and no overtime.

Similarly, some discretion was given on which plays got included. There are certain play types that carry great value but wouldn't be considered in the spirit of this...for example, kicking a 29-yard-field goal to break a tie with a minute to go may have great value, but isn't what you think of when you hear "game-changing plays".

The 10th-most Devastating Play: Boise State 9/6/2010 - Kellen Moore pass complete to Austin Pettis for 13 yards for a TOUCHDOWN

Among the plays that come to mind when Hokie fans think of the most devastating, I can't imagine this isn't near the top of most lists, at least emotionally. Virginia Tech was down 17-0 after one quarter, and the overwhelmingly pro-VT crowd was subdued as it seemed Tech would deliver another let-down performance against a marquee opponent on a national stage. But the combination of Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Williams got the offense moving and the defense clamped down, and soon the game was within reach.

Halfway through the second quarter the Hokies took a 4-point lead and still held that lead when the Broncos got the ball with 1:47 left to play on what would almost certainly be their final drive. A few plays later they were knocking on the door, having driven to the 13-yard line. On 1st and 10 they took a shot for the end zone but came up incomplete. The stadium held their breath for every snap, hoping the worst wouldn't happen.

On 2nd-and-10, quarterback Kellen Moore fakes the handoff while taking a deep drop, and then fires across the middle for the end zone a second time. Only this time, Austin Pettis had found space behind the defense and the perfectly thrown ball came in where only he could catch it. Touchdown Boise State with only 1:09 to go.

Virginia Tech was unable to answer on their final drive and lost the game 33-30.

The 10th-most Dominating Play: Boston College 12/1/2007 - Sean Glennon pass complete to Eddie Royal for 24 yards for a TOUCHDOWN

In the regular season, Boston College had narrowly defeated Virginia Tech in a game I don't really want to talk about right now, or really ever again. The loss cost the Hokies a realistic shot at playing in the national title game, an opportunity that has not presented itself again since. Virginia Tech would meet the Eagles again, however, in the ACC Championship Game.

Deadlocked at 16-16 midway through the fourth quarter and hoping to avenge the regular season loss, Virginia Tech faced a long 3rd-and-13 from the BC 24-yard-line. Given the way the Eagles had scored quickly in the waning minutes in the prior matchup, the Hokies desperately wanted a touchdown and not to settle for a field goal. Following the snap, Sean Glennon takes a short drop and pump fakes a shorter route...he then delivers a laser up the middle of the field, giving Eddie Royal a perfect lead in front of the end zone. Eddie leaps up to make the grab, falling backwards into the end zone with the ball. Touchdown Hokies.

Virginia Tech would go on to win the game 30-16.