By the (Advanced) Numbers: Hokies Host a High-Octane Wake Forest

As the saying goes, sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. And against Notre Dame, the Hokies may not have been good, but they sure came close to being lucky, and all wins count the same.

To be fair, Virginia Tech fought especially hard on both sides of the line and the defense was mostly excellent, especially given the losses in the secondary as the game went on. However, given the statistics of the game (yardage difference, turnovers, etc...) Notre Dame had a 99% win probability:

WEEK 10 ADVANCED BOX SCORESNOTRE DAME 21, VA TECH 20* 99% postgame win expectancy! 98-yard FRs change a game like nothing else can* ND doubled VT's scoring opps and nearly doubled yards and success rate. Domination* Passes to Hazelton: 6.3 yds/play. All others for VT: 3.3. pic.twitter.com/oVTSY9TWAM— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 4, 2019

In other words, given the statistical gap in performance between the teams, Notre Dame would be expected to win that game 99 times out of 100. It's a fair point. Forcing fumbles is not a skill that teams tend to be much better at than others, and once a fumble is forced, who recovers it is pretty much a coin flip. So the goal line turnover by Notre Dame is a pretty big "luck" play. Divine Deablo catching that fumble in mid-air and returning it 98 yards for the score is even luckier.