Ain't Got No Luck

Virginia Tech played a close game on Saturday. It went to overtime. They lost.

This unfortunate series of events has become a regular occurrence in the Brent Pry era. Since the Hokies' head whistle took over in 2022, the Hokies are 1-8 in one-possession games. Among FBS teams, only Akron (1-10) has a worse winning percentage.

But the advanced stat chart shows Tech wasn't completely dominated against Vanderbilt. In fact, the Hokies averaged over seven yards per play, had a modest 42% success rate, and won both the explosive play and third down conversion battle.

Bill Connelly's postgame win expectancy metric gave Tech a 25% chance of beating the Commodores based on predictive metrics. Ipso facto, it was the third "unluckiest" loss of college football's opening weekend. A missed opportunity. A blown chance.

To what can we attribute the misfortune? On the nature of luck.