Unfulfilled Potential

After Virginia Tech's regular season ended in yet another Commonwealth Cup victory over UVA, I was doing my typical end-of-year stat-digging and found a gem that perfectly encapsulates the Hokies' season.

Stat that sums up the #Hokies' season:Virginia Tech finishes with a +6.9 point differential (vs. FBS).In a full season, that's the highest point differential for a team that did 𝙉𝙊𝙏 finish with a winning record in the last 23 years.— Shelton Moss (@SheltonMoss21) December 2, 2024

Nothing says "Pry-era Hokie football" like being the most extreme bad-luck outlier in nearly a quarter-century of football.

Still, it sparks an interesting discussion. If we acknowledge that Virginia Tech's signature flaw was its inability to win close games, it must also be true that the Hokies aren't that far off from being a really good team. This is not a program in disarray, falling apart at the seams thanks to poor leadership.

Rather, the tombstone of the 2024 Hokies can be emblazoned with just two words: "unfulfilled potential".

The Mirage of Marve

Let's start by looking at the Hokies' defense.

When I started dissecting the defensive numbers for this team, I had to reckon with a cognitive dissonance. A dissonance so strong, a conclusion so contrary to popular thought, that I would hardly ever utter it in public for fear of censure. That is...

By most major metrics, Virginia Tech's defense improved from last year.

It's true. Points per drive? Lower. Yards per rush? Also lower. Yards per play was slightly up, but completion percentage? Way down. The advanced metrics — SP+, FEI, FPI — all of them indicated Tech's defense improved as a whole.

So... sign Chris Marve to a lifetime extension? (Signed: every Syracuse fan.) Well, here is where our discussion becomes nuanced.