Halfwits and Wagers: More (Fake) Gambling Wins than NCAA Sanctions

The Hokies return to the field after a much-needed weekend off and ready to slide into the season's second half with a win over UNC. After throttling an ascendant Carolina team last season in Chapel Hill, the Hokies will be looking to maintain their dominance over the state of North Carolina.

The good news for UNC is that Saturday's forecast is looking like a gorgeous day for football. Sunny with a high of 75. You couldn't ask for a better fall day. The bad news is that they have been absolutely devastated by injuries this season and have really struggled to get their offense going thus far. I know, I know. More excuses.

Maybe it's bad luck. Maybe it's karma.

On to the (fake) lines!

Over/Under 1.5 times ESPN shows an infographic of the number of injured UNC players

Brian: Man, the Heels are missing so many guys that I almost feel sorry for them. I mean 16 dudes who are out for the season? It's a nearly unprecedented stretch of bad luck, and they're only halfway through their schedule. But right when my empathy antennas start to pick up signal, I remember that no one should feel bad for UNC. Ever. They're the home to the most dominant athlete of all time (Michael Jordan), the most dominant pass rusher of all time (Lawrence Taylor), and the most dominant cheater of all time (Butch Davis). They've already had it all.

I'll take the over.

Pierson: The better question is what size font do they need to fit all of the names on the TV screen? UNC has 16 players that will miss the rest of the season due to injury, plus another five more players who are listed as Out for Saturday's tilt with the Hokies. THEY'RE MISSING SO MANY PLAYERS THEY CAN ALMOST FIELD A STARTING XI ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FOOTBALL. A large part of me feels like this is karma in it's truest form, coming around to ravish a program that has been so darn smug despite accomplishing so little while allegedly (**wink wink** **nudge nudge**) bending the rules.

The announcing crew may discuss the incredible number of injuries that have befallen Larry Fedora's club two or more times; however, I feel pretty confident that the injury graphic will adorn your screen only once during the first half and never again. I'll take the under.

Over/Under 463.5 yards of total offense for the Hokies

Brian: Even though UNC's defense has struggled with both injuries and execution, this number is slightly lower than the amount they give up per game. And outside of the Clemson game Tech's offense has been fine, but it doesn't routinely hit this number either.

I'm going to take the under, but not because I expect Josh Jackson and company to struggle. Quite the opposite, actually. I think they'll put up a bushel of points, but are aided by a defense that will make life hell for either Brandon Harris or Chazz Surratt. I see multiple scoring possessions starting with a short field from either turnovers or big special teams plays, and coming off a bye I think Jackson will continuously capitalize. But the simple fact of not starting drives deep in their own territory will keep a cap on the yardage total.

Pierson: This is a tricky line. On the season, the Hokies are averaging 467 yards of total offense (#25 in the nation) but have only topped this line in three of their six games — against WVU, ECU and ODU.

North Carolina's defense has been...how should I say this...poor. They're surrendering 460.9 yards per game to opposing offenses, which puts them 114th out of 130 teams. Boston College, for reference purposes, ranks #108 in the country in total defense, giving up 445.9 yards per game. ECU — remember them? — is dead last with opponents averaging 600 yards per game against them. Yeesh.

Despite a relatively conservative second half game plan and lacking a number of offensive weapons, the Hokies managed 431 yards of offense two weeks ago against BC. And we all remember how Tech exploded for 675 yards against the Pirates.

So Virginia Tech is capable, but should fans expect another onslaught Saturday afternoon? It seems likely. Opponents have gashed the Tar Heels however they've seen fit. Running teams have trounced the Heels, and passing teams have lit them up through the air. While the Hokies will want to be as balanced as possible, I wouldn't be surprised to see them attack Carolina through the air similar to how they beat BC. 464 yards is a big number that could easily be affected by Tech taking their foot off the gas. I'm expecting some fireworks Saturday — I'll take the over.

Which is Greater: UNC DE Jalen Dalton total tackles or Virginia Tech kick returns

This line has been taken off the board with last night's release of the UNC injury report, which lists Jalen Dalton as "Out" for Saturday's game

Brian: I forgot how much I hate when Tech plays the Tar Heels until I watched UNC the other week, and kept hearing the names of former Hokie targets. Dalton was a brutal miss right before the #NC2VT movement really heated up. Austin Proehl was a Tech lean for a moment. Dazz Newsome and M.J. Stewart are both from Virginia. I know recruiting's seen a massive uptick under the new staff, but it still hurts to see some guys not rocking maroon.

As far as this line goes, it's not like Dalton has played particularly well so far this year. He's amassed a paltry 12 tackles over five games, with just one sack. But this line is complicated, because you not only have to factor in Dalton's play, but the number of times the Tar Heel offense will score (hence the kickoffs).

It's been two weeks now, but let's not forget how much the Boston College defensive line gave Tech the business in Chestnut Hill. And it wasn't just Harold Landry; Zach Allen destroyed the Hokies wherever he lined up. It'll be interesting to watch how Yosh Nijman and Kyle Chung bounce back, and even though I think they'll do well, I'd still take Dalton to win this bet.

Pierson: Former Hokies target Jalen Dalton has had an up-and-down career thus far in Carolina blue. He has shown flashes of the high four-star talent that made him such a hot commodity on the recruiting trail three years ago. Yet for each of those moments of promise came boneheaded plays that left many shaking their heads.

He was ejected from last year's game against NC State after throwing a punch and refusing to be held back by a helpless Larry Fedora. He was also ejected from the season opener for targeting Cal quarterback Ross Bowers in a nasty helmet-to-helmet hit.

Welcome to North Carolina pic.twitter.com/t1DOAt21iz— UNC-Barstool (@UNCBarstool) September 2, 2017

That hit late in the second quarter came with the Heels up 17-7, and, after Dalton was ejected, was immediately followed by a 67-yard touchdown strike that began a 28-7 Cal run to close the game.

Dalton is averaging 2.4 tackles per game and has managed only 4 stops over his last two contests. I think the Heels manage no more than 10 points against the Hokie defense, so that's three kick returns for the Good Guys. Do I think Dalton finishes with 4 or more tackles? He did it against a Louisville team that ran 83 plays (and had 3 tackles against Notre Dame when they reeled off 88 plays). Tech is averaging 82 plays per game against FBS foes, and UNC's sputtering offense should provide plenty of possessions for Tech. I'll take Dalton in this one, assuming he doesn't get himself kicked out of the game (Editor's Note: I suppose he already did in some fashion).

Who finishes with more total rushing yards: Josh Jackson or Whoever is Playing Quarterback for UNC (Chazz Surratt or Brandon Harris)

Brian: Man, how much of a red herring was Jackson's 101 yard rushing performance against West Virginia? Since then, here are his totals:

vs Delaware: eight attempts, 19 yards.
@ ECU: three attempts, -5 yards.
vs ODU: 10 attempts, 29 yards.
vs Clemson: nine attempts, 13 yards.
@ BC: 14 attempts, -3 yards.

Given those performances, and how every Bud Foster defense over the last decade has struggled against scrambling QBs, how can anyone pick Jackson here?

What I really want to know, is how much of those rushing numbers are on Jackson, and how much of them are on the offensive line. Yes, some of the negative numbers come from sacks. And sure, Josh isn't (TALKING POINT ALERT) the athlete that Jerod Evans was a year ago, but it's not like he's a Glennon-esque tree back there. And also, regardless of who's to blame, how much is the lack of a consistent quarterback run game impacting the rest of the offense? How much easier will it be for defenses to key on the running backs if Jackson's less of a threat when he keeps it? They're unanswerable questions right now, just something to watch for.

Pierson: No one seems to know who is starting at quarterback for the Heels on Saturday. I'm not convinced Larry Fedora or his OC Chris Kapilovic know. Against UVa last weekend, the video board announced Chazz Surratt as the starting quarterback — which made sense, given that he'd taken the majority of reps over the last four weeks and hadn't appeared on the injury report — only to see LSU transfer Brandon Harris take the first snap and every one thereafter.

Redshirt freshman Surratt has not reached Josh Jackson levels of competence in his first season of action, but he's certainly been better than Harris. Against the Hoos, Harris managed to generate 71 yards of offense, 25 of which came on the ground. Surratt is the more fleet-of-foot of the two, averaging close to 30 yards per game on the ground. He's had games of 77 (Duke) and 66 (Cal) rushing yards, so he can certainly make plays with his feet and we all know about Bud Foster and mobile quarterbacks.

Jackson is averaging just under 26 yards per game this year, a figure that is seriously buoyed by his 101 yard debut performance against the Mountaineers. Since then, Jackson has averaged 10.6 yards per game, which is virtually identical to Harris' 10.8 ypg. Even though we don't really know who is going to get the majority of snaps under center for Carolina, I have a feeling we see a good deal of Surratt. I'll take the "Mysterious UNC QB Position."

Which team finishes with more tackles for loss

Brian: Knock knock.

Who's there?

Tim Settle.

Tim Settle again.

And Tim Settle again.

Pierson: Both defenses have 42 TFL on the year, though it's taken the Heels an extra game and 149 more plays to reach this figure. UNC's pass rush has been decent this year, ranking 32nd in the nation with 16 sacks (the Hokies have only managed 12). Virginia Tech's offense has allowed 11 sacks this season, 5 of which came in their last game against Boston College, while North Carolina's offensive line has surrendered 15.

I think a ferocious Hokies defense smells blood in the water. I'll take Tech.

Matchup Over/Under: 51.5

Brian: In Larry Fedora's first season, UNC started just as poorly as they did this year. They kicked things off by going 1-5, including a loss to East Carolina. They were a rudderless group playing two quarterbacks and couldn't get things together on the defensive end. They also played a tough schedule, with two top-10 teams and two other tough ACC foes.

This season, the Heels have played a Cal team that's much better than anyone thought. Two top-25 squads in Louisville and Notre Dame, and a Georgia Tech group that has bounced back from a bad year. Sure, they also lost to UVA and a confidence-bankrupt Daniel Jones, but it's foolish to think they've packed it in. Because if history is any indication, I'd wait for them to be officially pronounced dead before thinking they're done.

Fedora's group will come at Tech with everything they've got. No matter what their record is, no matter who the QB is, they'll do what they can to put points on the board. Added to the aforementioned fact that Carolina's defense isn't great, and I'll take the over.

Pierson: Do we think that the Tar Heels have rolled over yet? I don't. They played UVa tough last weekend before falling 20-14. That was weird to type. Do we think that they will be focused or intimidated by facing the #14 Hokies and #8 Miami Hurricanes in consecutive weeks? I think we'll see them come out of the gates playing hard and making a game of this before ultimately fading. They just have too many holes in their roster right now and not enough available and/or experienced playmakers in key positions.

The Hokies should just keep turning the screws, knowing that they're a better and deeper team than UNC. After a week off this game may be closer than many would like to see up to halftime, but eventually I believe that Tech will pull away. I mentioned earlier than 10 points feels about right for the Tar Heels, so that would require Tech to score 42 or more. Only Louisville Lamar Jackson has managed to rack up that many points on Carolina, while Tech has surpassed this number only once (ECU). I'll take the under.

Spread: Virginia Tech (-21)

Brian: As a Hokie fan, I've been beaten down over the last five years. As a senior at Tech, I witnessed the downfall of Frank Beamer and everything he built in Blacksburg. And as someone who spent two football seasons living in town post-graduation, I watched how bad things got. How, when talking to people around the program, pre-season expectations consisted of a lot of shrugs and maybes.

And so to people like me, it's a bit of a challenge to remember that Virginia Tech football is back to normal. That they're in the top-25 and are considered by some to be a darkhorse playoff contender.

It's hard to remember until you see an awful ECU team come out like gangbusters against the Tech, because it's the biggest game of their season. Until you see Boston College run a reverse throw back to the quarterback against the Hokies, because they need to pull out all the stops to take a swing at a bigger program.

This sounds like a humblebrag, but it's true. Virginia Tech football is the villain again. The bad guy to all of the teams in the ACC (and beyond) who just want to give their fans a signature win before the season's over. Which means each game will be a challenge for the Hokies, regardless of how well their opponent's season has gone.

21 is way too high. Tech wins, 34-17, meaning it's a comfortable win, but still doesn't cover.

Pierson: This is the same exact spread as the Hokies' Week 3 matchup with East Carolina (which, mind you, the Hokies blew out of the water), albeit this time it's at home. Another 1-6 team from the state of North Carolina. What is going on down there? Is there something in the water?

Carolina has missed this spread in two out of their last three games — a 33-7 loss to Georgia Tech and a 33-10 loss to Notre Dame. They played UVa close (neat) and managed to drop 35 points on Louisville (as has the rest of the country), but otherwise have been dreadful this season on offense against P5 teams.

The Tar Heels surrender just over 31 points per game, good for 96th nationally. The Good Guys average 33.3 points per game (#44), a figure that we've seen drop over the last two weeks against some stiffer competition. Carolina's defense hasn't been good this season — some of which can be attributed to the vast number of injured players — but they will field a talented group on Saturday. Offensively, they have two adept tailbacks who have each rushed for over 100 yards in a game this season, as well as a mobile freshman quarterback that has the potential to keep the Heels in the game if things break in his favor.

With all due respect to the Hokies, this number is stupidly high. Despite the injuries, Larry Fedora's team has enough potential to make a game of this. There is familiarity between these two programs, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Heels have a bit of a chip on their shoulder after last year's embarrassing loss (in a hurricane*). I think the Heels do just enough to stay within reach of the Hokies. I'll take Carolina +21.

Disclaimer: Some of these are real betting lines, but many of them are fake and none of this is real advice that should be taken seriously.